395
FXUS65 KVEF 281703
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1003 AM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROLL
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZIER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
OVER THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION, AS WELL AS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
UPDATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHIFTED THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
CONTINUED TO BE IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE WEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WERE GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF INYO COUNTY WHERE WINDS WERE LIGHT.
THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE SHORTWAVE FORCING ALLOWING FOR
MIXING INTO AN 850 MB JET THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
BLANKETING THE REGION, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SATURATION NOTED ON
THE 12Z LAS VEGAS, NV SOUNDING AT 600MB AND ABOVE. WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND FALLING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
WERE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT,
INCLUDING BARSTOW, CA, WHERE WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OVER 40
MPH AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IMPACTFUL THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS MAY
CREATE DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO CROSSWINDS AND PATCHY
BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO THROUGH CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA AN INYO COUNTY, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST
HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THATS MOVING
THROUGH IS NOT OVERLY STRONG SO WIND SHOULD NOT GUST OVER 20 MPH.
THE AREA OF THICK CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST WITH THE
SHORTWAVE, SO SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS HIGHS WILL RUN 8-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TRANSITION INTO THE
REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST WITH IMPACTS AND OVERALL WEATHER DETAILS TRENDING AS
EXPECTED.
-NICKERSON-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
447 AM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SHORT TERM
THROUGH SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. THESE 40 TO 45 MPH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BREEZY WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
SEE A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TO THE AREA, AS WELL AS A 15 TO 25% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE IN THE NORMAL-TO-SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL RANGE AS THE
SHORTWAVES KEEP 500 MB HEIGHTS SUPPRESSED.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE PATTERN IN MOTION NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME,
MULTIPLE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN US.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THE STORM TRACK IN THE GREAT BASIN
OR FARTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT, LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LARGELY LIMITED TO OUR SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ZONES, WHERE
POPS ARE 10-40% MONDAY - WEDNESDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER ELEMENT
WILL BE THE WIND, WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS EACH
DAY. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS
IS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. LATEST
NBM PAINTS THE I-15 CORRIDOR, WESTERN INYO COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN WITH 60+ PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS. IN
ADDITION TO THE GRADIENT WINDS, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS.
BY MID/LATE WEEK, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOW PROGRESSIVE IS THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TROUGH AFTER THE AXIS MOVES THROUGH? WHEN THE NE PACIFIC/PACNW
TROUGH RELOADS, HOW DEEP DOES IT DIG AND IS IT MORE INLAND OR
OFFSHORE? THE ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS WILL DICTATE THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WE EXPERIENCE WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. REGARDLESS, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES DURING THIS TIME WHILE GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST. IF
THE THE TROUGH CAN RELOAD IN A WAY THAT INDUCES SW FLOW AND BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION OR THE THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD,
POPS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR PERIODS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON, BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE FALLING TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TAKE A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW
MORNING. SCT TO BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION IS KDAG, WHERE WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY RETURN IN THE EVENING AT KHND AND KEED.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF OVER 10 KNOTS REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT KBIH. SCT TO BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...MELTZER
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