217
FXUS65 KVEF 281957
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1257 PM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROLL
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZIER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
OVER THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION, AS WELL AS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND BREEZY WINDS TO THE
REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EAST AND WILL EXIT THE AREA
TONIGHT. IT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM- THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER IT WILL BE WEAKENING AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOISTURE AND
OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION
WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY, THOUGH BASED ON HI-RES MODEL
REFLECTIVITY IT WOULD ONLY BE A BRIEF AS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. WITH THE RAPID MOTION OF
THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE-
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE OR
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE EITHER,
SO WINDS WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, INCLUDING IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, AND WIND IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED IN ANY AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BY SATURDAY EVENING AS
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THOUGH AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN OFF THE
WEST COAST, BUT A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 500MB JET WILL
MEAN MORE BREEZY WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE BARSTOW, CA AREA WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 40 MPH
WINDS RETURNING BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF NON-IMPACTFUL LIGHTER WINDS THAT THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY THAT GOES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE
LET GO THEN ANOTHER HEADLINE WOULD BE POTENTIALLY ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY LOW-END PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON THE SIERRA CREST AS UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SQUEEZE OUT
LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITHOUT ANY MAJOR DAILY FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE PATTERN IN MOTION NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME,
MULTIPLE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN US.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THE STORM TRACK IN THE GREAT BASIN
OR FARTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT, LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LARGELY LIMITED TO OUR SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ZONES, WHERE
POPS ARE 10-40% MONDAY - WEDNESDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER ELEMENT
WILL BE THE WIND, WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS EACH
DAY. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS
IS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. LATEST
NBM PAINTS THE I-15 CORRIDOR, WESTERN INYO COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN WITH 60+ PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS. IN
ADDITION TO THE GRADIENT WINDS, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS.
BY MID/LATE WEEK, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOW PROGRESSIVE IS THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TROUGH AFTER THE AXIS MOVES THROUGH? WHEN THE NE PACIFIC/PACNW
TROUGH RELOADS, HOW DEEP DOES IT DIG AND IS IT MORE INLAND OR
OFFSHORE? THE ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS WILL DICTATE THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WE EXPERIENCE WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. REGARDLESS, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES DURING THIS TIME WHILE GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST. IF
THE THE TROUGH CAN RELOAD IN A WAY THAT INDUCES SW FLOW AND BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION OR THE THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD,
POPS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR PERIODS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON, BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE FALLING
TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. SCT TO BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...KDAG WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST AT KHND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF OVER 10 KNOTS REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AT KBIH BEFORE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SITES WILL SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH
SUNSET AND THEN REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...CZYZYK
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