932
FXUS65 KVEF 290142
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
642 PM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROLL
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZIER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
OVER THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION, AS WELL AS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
UPDATE
AFTER A SUBTLE LULL THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
PICK BACK UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN DESERTS. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
BARSTOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST BUT
SHOULD NOT BE VERY IMPACTFUL. WINDS OF THIS GENERAL MAGNITUDE WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A BIGGER AND BROADER SYSTEM MOVES
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS AND BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND BREEZY WINDS TO THE
REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EAST AND WILL EXIT THE AREA
TONIGHT. IT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM- THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY;
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE WEAKENING AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOISTURE AND
OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED, SO PRECIPITATION
WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY, THOUGH BASED ON HI-RES MODEL
REFLECTIVITY, IT WOULD ONLY BE A BRIEF, AS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. WITH THE RAPID MOTION OF
THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE,
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE OR
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE EITHER,
SO WINDS WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, INCLUDING IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, AND WIND IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED IN ANY AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BY SATURDAY EVENING AS
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES, THOUGH, AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN OFF THE
WEST COAST, BUT A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 500MB JET WILL
MEAN MORE BREEZY WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE BARSTOW, CA AREA WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 40 MPH
WINDS RETURNING BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS ON
SATURDAY, THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE, WITH A NEW ONE LIKELY HOISTED FOR SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY LOW-END PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
THE SIERRA CREST AS UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITHOUT ANY MAJOR DAILY FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE PATTERN IN MOTION NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME,
MULTIPLE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN US.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THE STORM TRACK IN THE GREAT BASIN
OR FARTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT, LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LARGELY LIMITED TO OUR SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ZONES, WHERE
POPS ARE 10-40% MONDAY - WEDNESDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER ELEMENT
WILL BE THE WIND, WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS EACH
DAY. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS
IS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. LATEST
NBM PAINTS THE I-15 CORRIDOR, WESTERN INYO COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN WITH 60+ PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS. IN
ADDITION TO THE GRADIENT WINDS, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS.
BY MID/LATE WEEK, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOW PROGRESSIVE IS THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TROUGH AFTER THE AXIS MOVES THROUGH? WHEN THE NE PACIFIC/PACNW
TROUGH RELOADS, HOW DEEP DOES IT DIG AND IS IT MORE INLAND OR
OFFSHORE? THE ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS WILL DICTATE THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WE EXPERIENCE WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. REGARDLESS, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES DURING THIS TIME WHILE GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST. IF
THE THE TROUGH CAN RELOAD IN A WAY THAT INDUCES SW FLOW AND BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION OR THE THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD,
POPS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, THOUGH GUST FREQUENCY WILL EBB AND FLOW WITH GUST SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. SATURDAY MORNING, EXPECT BRIEF BREEZINESS
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS AS TODAY. FEW-SCT AOA 12KFT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH GUST FREQUENCY EBBING AND FLOWING. GUST SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. SOUTHWEST GUSTS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KBIH WILL EXPERIENCE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS DECREASING IN FREQUENCY TONIGHT, BUT RETURNING
SATURDAY MORNING. KDAG WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM THE WEST WITH GUST
SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KEED WILL HAVE
MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT THAN KIFP THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
GUSTS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND WANING SATURDAY MORNING. KIFP WILL
GUST FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING, WANE OVERNIGHT, THEN WILL RETURN
SATURDAY MORNING. FEW-SCT AOA 12KFT AREAWIDE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...WOODS
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...SOULAT
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