537  
FXUS65 KVEF 290457  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
956 PM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROLL  
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZIER CONDITIONS  
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR  
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA  
OVER THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE  
AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE  
REGION, AS WELL AS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN  
SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.  
 
   
UPDATE  
AFTER A SUBTLE LULL THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO  
PICK BACK UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN DESERTS. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR  
BARSTOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45  
MPH EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST BUT  
SHOULD NOT BE VERY IMPACTFUL. WINDS OF THIS GENERAL MAGNITUDE WILL  
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A BIGGER AND BROADER SYSTEM MOVES  
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS AND BELOW-  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO  
THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND BREEZY WINDS TO THE  
REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EAST AND WILL EXIT THE AREA  
TONIGHT. IT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM- THE  
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND FROM THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY;  
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE WEAKENING AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOISTURE AND  
OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED, SO PRECIPITATION  
WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY, THOUGH BASED ON HI-RES MODEL  
REFLECTIVITY, IT WOULD ONLY BE A BRIEF, AS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS  
BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. WITH THE RAPID MOTION OF  
THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE,  
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE OR  
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE EITHER,  
SO WINDS WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING, INCLUDING IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, AND WIND IMPACTS  
ARE NOT EXPECTED IN ANY AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BY SATURDAY EVENING AS  
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER  
PATTERN CONTINUES, THOUGH, AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH  
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN OFF THE  
WEST COAST, BUT A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 500MB JET WILL  
MEAN MORE BREEZY WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS WILL  
AGAIN BE IN THE BARSTOW, CA AREA WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 40 MPH  
WINDS RETURNING BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES  
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS ON  
SATURDAY, THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA WILL BE ALLOWED TO  
EXPIRE, WITH A NEW ONE LIKELY HOISTED FOR SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE,  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION  
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY LOW-END PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ON  
THE SIERRA CREST AS UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT SNOW.  
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL WITHOUT ANY MAJOR DAILY FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES  
EXPECTED.  
   
LONG TERM  
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC  
WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE PATTERN IN MOTION NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME,  
MULTIPLE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN US.  
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THE STORM TRACK IN THE GREAT BASIN  
OR FARTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT, LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE  
LARGELY LIMITED TO OUR SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ZONES, WHERE  
POPS ARE 10-40% MONDAY - WEDNESDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER ELEMENT  
WILL BE THE WIND, WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS EACH  
DAY. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS  
IS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. LATEST  
NBM PAINTS THE I-15 CORRIDOR, WESTERN INYO COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHERN  
GREAT BASIN WITH 60+ PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS. IN  
ADDITION TO THE GRADIENT WINDS, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL  
FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS.  
 
BY MID/LATE WEEK, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION  
OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOW PROGRESSIVE IS THE MONDAY/TUESDAY  
TROUGH AFTER THE AXIS MOVES THROUGH? WHEN THE NE PACIFIC/PACNW  
TROUGH RELOADS, HOW DEEP DOES IT DIG AND IS IT MORE INLAND OR  
OFFSHORE? THE ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS WILL DICTATE THE SENSIBLE  
WEATHER WE EXPERIENCE WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES. REGARDLESS, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW  
SEASONAL VALUES DURING THIS TIME WHILE GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST. IF  
THE THE TROUGH CAN RELOAD IN A WAY THAT INDUCES SW FLOW AND BETTER  
MOISTURE ADVECTION OR THE THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD,  
POPS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE  
 
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT  
PERIOD, SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE PREVAILING TAF. THAT SAID, CANNOT  
DISCOUNT OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING. BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST  
WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS (8-12 KTS) BEFORE THE WEST-SOUTHWEST PUSH IN THE  
AFTERNOON. LOW-TO-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST-SOUTHWEST ONSET TIME,  
BUT LOOKING AT 23-02Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE  
AFTER SUNSET. FEW-SCT AOA 12KFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE... BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS  
CONTINUE FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN  
15 & 17Z BEFORE WEST-SOUTHWEST GUSTS RETURN LATE-AFTERNOON. KBIH  
WILL EXPERIENCE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD,  
WITH GUSTS DECREASING IN FREQUENCY TONIGHT, BUT RETURNING SATURDAY  
MORNING. KDAG WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM THE WEST WITH GUST SPEEDS  
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS  
AT KEED AND KIFP TONIGHT, WITH BRIEF LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS  
SATURDAY MORNING, AND BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING BETWEEN  
20 AND 23Z. FEW-SCT AOA 12KFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...WOODS  
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON  
LONG TERM...WOODS  
AVIATION...SOULAT  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab NV Page
The Nexlab AZ Page
The Nexlab CA Page
Main Text Page