433
FXUS65 KVEF 290835
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
135 AM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROLL THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
CURRENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TREK, MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT THROUGH MID-MORNING, DECREASING BEHIND THE AXIS OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN THIS OUTLOOK, THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY REMAINS ON TRACK TO
EXPIRE AT 15Z (8:00 AM PDT) THIS MORNING. AS THIS SHORTWAVE WORKS
ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, THE PANHANDLE OF LINCOLN COUNTY
WILL SEE A 30 TO 60% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MINIMAL TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS AS
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE
6,500 FEET. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING OURS WITH A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL
BY SUNDAY, WITH A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING GUST WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND EASTERN SIERRA ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
THE EASTERN SIERRA CREST WILL SEE A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. STILL LOOKING AT A STRONGER, BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING A PERIOD MORE WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE THE I-
15 CORRIDOR, WESTERN INYO COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE
PROBABILITIES ARE OVER 60%. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY, WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGEST IN
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. PRECIPITATION-WISE, THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS GOING TO STAY DRY, WITH ONLY THE SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN HAVING POPS OVER 20%. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL
IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEGUN TO CAVE
TOWARD THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN, FAVORING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD, WITH FORECAST HIGHS NOW ~10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. ADDITIONALLY, THIS SETUP WILL LIMIT
THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WHILE BREEZY TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED, THE CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTS HAVE
COME DOWN DURING THIS TIME (NOW LESS THAN 50% EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY). LASTLY, THE PERSIST TROUGHING AND
WNW FLOW WILL LIMIT MOISTURE EAST OF THE SIERRA. WITH THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE DIRECTED TO OUR SOUTH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIKELY
TO BE TIED TO THE TRACK OF EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
THEIR COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD MAKE ANY PRECIPITATION MORE
SHOWERY AND ISOLATED IN NATURE. THIS IS SEEN IN THE LATEST NBM POPS,
WHICH HAVE COME DOWN FROM YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES (10-30%) ARE ON
FRIDAY WHEN SOME MODELS BRING A COLDER, UPPER-LEVEL LOW DOWN OVER
OUR AREA.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE PREVAILING TAF. THAT SAID, CANNOT
DISCOUNT OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS (8-12 KTS) BEFORE THE WEST-SOUTHWEST PUSH IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW-TO-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WEST-SOUTHWEST ONSET TIME,
BUT LOOKING AT 23-02Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET. FEW-SCT AOA 12KFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE... BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN
15 & 17Z BEFORE WEST-SOUTHWEST GUSTS RETURN LATE-AFTERNOON. KBIH
WILL EXPERIENCE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH GUSTS DECREASING IN FREQUENCY TONIGHT, BUT RETURNING SATURDAY
MORNING. KDAG WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM THE WEST WITH GUST SPEEDS
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT KEED AND KIFP TONIGHT, WITH BRIEF LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY MORNING, AND BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING BETWEEN
20 AND 23Z. FEW-SCT AOA 12KFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...SOULAT
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