040
FXUS65 KVEF 291703
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1003 AM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROLL THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE REGION.
UPDATE
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN OVERALL PLEASANT EARLY
SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8AM. WILL BE TAKING A LOOK
TODAY AT THE NEED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
CURRENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TREK, MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT THROUGH MID-MORNING, DECREASING BEHIND THE AXIS OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN THIS OUTLOOK, THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY REMAINS ON TRACK TO
EXPIRE AT 15Z (8:00 AM PDT) THIS MORNING. AS THIS SHORTWAVE WORKS
ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, THE PANHANDLE OF LINCOLN COUNTY
WILL SEE A 30 TO 60% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MINIMAL TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS AS
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE
6,500 FEET. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING OURS WITH A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL
BY SUNDAY, WITH A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING GUST WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND EASTERN SIERRA ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
THE EASTERN SIERRA CREST WILL SEE A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. STILL LOOKING AT A STRONGER, BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING A PERIOD MORE WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE THE I-
15 CORRIDOR, WESTERN INYO COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE
PROBABILITIES ARE OVER 60%. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY, WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGEST IN
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. PRECIPITATION-WISE, THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS GOING TO STAY DRY, WITH ONLY THE SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN HAVING POPS OVER 20%. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL
IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEGUN TO CAVE
TOWARD THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN, FAVORING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD, WITH FORECAST HIGHS NOW ~10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. ADDITIONALLY, THIS SETUP WILL LIMIT
THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WHILE BREEZY TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED, THE CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTS HAVE
COME DOWN DURING THIS TIME (NOW LESS THAN 50% EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY). LASTLY, THE PERSIST TROUGHING AND
WNW FLOW WILL LIMIT MOISTURE EAST OF THE SIERRA. WITH THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE DIRECTED TO OUR SOUTH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIKELY
TO BE TIED TO THE TRACK OF EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
THEIR COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD MAKE ANY PRECIPITATION MORE
SHOWERY AND ISOLATED IN NATURE. THIS IS SEEN IN THE LATEST NBM POPS,
WHICH HAVE COME DOWN FROM YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES (10-30%) ARE ON
FRIDAY WHEN SOME MODELS BRING A COLDER, UPPER-LEVEL LOW DOWN OVER
OUR AREA.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
BUT WILL STILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE LAS TERMINALS AROUND 18Z. WINDS
OVER 8KT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS ARE NOT LIKELY. WEST WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAKING IT TO THE LAS TERMINALS
AROUND 00Z. GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
THE WEST WINDS. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND BRIEFLY DROP TO 8KT OR LESS BEFORE ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS PUSH
BACK IN TO LAS AFTER 09Z. WIND SPEEDS OVER 10KT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
09Z WITH A LOW CHANCE (20%-30%) FOR GUSTS TO 20KT UNTIL AROUND 14Z
WHEN GUSTS OVER 20KT ARE MORE LIKELY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT KLAS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS AROUND
15KFT-20KFT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW VFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF LAS AIRPORT, KVGT WILL NOT GET THE WEST PUSH OF WINDS AND
INSTEAD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KT THROUGH HIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING OFF TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS AT KVGT WILL BE
UNDER 8KT THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 8KT
RETURNS SATURDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. KHND WILL GET THE WEST PUSH
BUT WINDS WILL NOT GUST, JUST JUMP TO AROUND 10KT FOR A PERIOD THIS
EVENING. AFTER 03Z TONIGHT, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH INTO
KHND MUCH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER VALLEY AIRPORT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WIND AT KDAG WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST GUSTS TO 25KT THIS
AFTERNOON BY 21Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
STRONGER WEST WINDS ARRIVE AT KDAG SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 15Z WITH
GUSTS 30-35KT RETURNING FOR SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT KBIH WILL BE LIGHT, UNDER 10KT,
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KEED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KT, BUT THESE
WEST WINDS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AT KIFP WHERE CONTINUED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
20KT POSSIBLE. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS IN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON, IT WILL DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT-20KFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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