191
FXUS65 KVEF 292026
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
126 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH A POTENT STORM SYSTEM BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A FAST PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS AND WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IS
PROMOTING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, WHICH WILL
QUICKLY CEASE AFTER SUNSET THANKS TO THE LOSS IN SURFACE HEATING
AND INCREASING STABILITY ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HOVER PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE LINCOLN COUNTY PANHANDLE.
TOMORROW, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC JET DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE A RATHER DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACNW. ENHANCED 850 AND 700MB FLOW
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT AND WILL RESUME THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AROUND BARSTOW AND
BICYCLE LAKE. WITH NBM PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 75 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE BARSTOW AND BICYCLE LAKE AREAS, WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING TOMORROW MORNING FOR
THOSE AREAS. ONCE THE WIND GETS GOING OUT THERE, IT NEVER REALLY
DROPS OFF UNTIL MIDWEEK. A FEW STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE
US-395 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING THOSE
GUSTS TO BE BRIEF AND HUGGING THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA.
ELSEWHERE TOMORROW, PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEEP AND ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL
BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, FAIRLY RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE A CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS
FOCUSED FROM THE SIERRA AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA. MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A COLDER AND
DEEPER SOLUTION, LENDING SOME SUPPORT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS. ALSO LENDING SUPPORT TO HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IS THE PRESENCE
OF A STABLE LAYER NEAR 700MB RIDGETOP LEVELS, ENHANCED 850MB AND
700MB FEATURING 50KNOTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW, AND WE ARE WITHIN
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF WINDY SEASON. STATISTICALLY, MARCH HAS
THE HIGHEST FREQUENCY OF 58+ MPH GUSTS OF ANY OTHER MONTH IN LAS
VEGAS AND IT'S BY QUITE A LARGE MARGIN. WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF
THE ABOVE FACTORS, AS WELL AS AN ANALYSIS OF NBM PROBABILITIES
AND SYNOPTIC SIMILARITIES TO PREVIOUS WIND EVENTS, WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA INCLUDING
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND LAS VEGAS, AS WELL AS MOST OF INYO COUNTY
IN CALIFORNIA. STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT LOOK TO
BE DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED, FAVORING AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN FEATURES, THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE OWENS VALLEY, RED ROCK
CANYON, AND THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PUSH INLAND TUESDAY, WITH A LARGE
AND BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN BECOMING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
WEST. THIS ULTIMATELY MEANS THE THE DOMINANT TROUGH PATTERN WILL
HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES RELOAD THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT DOMINATES THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER, AND FAVOR THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH A FAVORABLY TIMED SHORTWAVE COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY LATE IN THE WEEK FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT FOR
THAT TO BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THE SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT WILL STILL
MAKE IT THROUGH THE LAS TERMINALS AROUND 18Z. WINDS OVER 8KT ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS
ARE NOT LIKELY. WEST WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAKING IT TO THE LAS TERMINALS AROUND 00Z. GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE WEST WINDS.
AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND BRIEFLY
DROP TO 8KT OR LESS BEFORE ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS PUSH BACK IN TO
LAS AFTER 09Z. WIND SPEEDS OVER 10KT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z WITH A
LOW CHANCE (20%-30%) FOR GUSTS TO 20KT UNTIL AROUND 14Z WHEN
GUSTS OVER 20KT ARE MORE LIKELY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT KLAS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS
AROUND 15KFT-20KFT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW
VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF LAS AIRPORT, KVGT WILL NOT GET THE WEST PUSH OF WINDS AND
INSTEAD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KT THROUGH HIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING OFF TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS AT KVGT WILL BE
UNDER 8KT THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 8KT
RETURNS SATURDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. KHND WILL GET THE WEST PUSH
BUT WINDS WILL NOT GUST, JUST JUMP TO AROUND 10KT FOR A PERIOD THIS
EVENING. AFTER 03Z TONIGHT, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH INTO
KHND MUCH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER VALLEY AIRPORT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WIND AT KDAG WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST GUSTS TO 25KT THIS
AFTERNOON BY 21Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
STRONGER WEST WINDS ARRIVE AT KDAG SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 15Z WITH
GUSTS 30-35KT RETURNING FOR SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT KBIH WILL BE LIGHT, UNDER 10KT,
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KEED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KT, BUT THESE
WEST WINDS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AT KIFP WHERE CONTINUED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
20KT POSSIBLE. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS IN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON, IT WILL DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT-20KFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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