363
FXUS65 KVEF 300506
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1006 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH A POTENT STORM SYSTEM BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.
UPDATE
FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRINGTIME WEATHER OUT THERE TODAY, WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS. WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP
TOMORROW ACROSS OUR WESTERN DESERTS TOMORROW WITH A WIND ADVISORY
GOING INTO EFFECT FOR THE BARSTOW AREA AT 8AM. IMPACTFUL GUSTS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES. HIGH
WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SIERRA TO THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH.
AS THE TROUGH SETTLES IN ON TUESDAY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL
WINDS SHIFT TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHILE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A FAST PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS AND WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IS
PROMOTING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, WHICH WILL
QUICKLY CEASE AFTER SUNSET THANKS TO THE LOSS IN SURFACE HEATING
AND INCREASING STABILITY ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HOVER PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE LINCOLN COUNTY PANHANDLE.
TOMORROW, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC JET DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE A RATHER DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACNW. ENHANCED 850 AND 700MB FLOW
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT AND WILL RESUME THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AROUND BARSTOW AND
BICYCLE LAKE. WITH NBM PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 75 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE BARSTOW AND BICYCLE LAKE AREAS, WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING TOMORROW MORNING FOR
THOSE AREAS. ONCE THE WIND GETS GOING OUT THERE, IT NEVER REALLY
DROPS OFF UNTIL MIDWEEK. A FEW STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE
US-395 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING THOSE
GUSTS TO BE BRIEF AND HUGGING THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA.
ELSEWHERE TOMORROW, PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEEP AND ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL
BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, FAIRLY RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE A CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS
FOCUSED FROM THE SIERRA AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA. MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A COLDER AND
DEEPER SOLUTION, LENDING SOME SUPPORT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS. ALSO LENDING SUPPORT TO HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IS THE PRESENCE
OF A STABLE LAYER NEAR 700MB RIDGETOP LEVELS, ENHANCED 850MB AND
700MB FEATURING 50KNOTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW, AND WE ARE WITHIN
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF WINDY SEASON. STATISTICALLY, MARCH HAS
THE HIGHEST FREQUENCY OF 58+ MPH GUSTS OF ANY OTHER MONTH IN LAS
VEGAS AND IT'S BY QUITE A LARGE MARGIN. WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF
THE ABOVE FACTORS, AS WELL AS AN ANALYSIS OF NBM PROBABILITIES
AND SYNOPTIC SIMILARITIES TO PREVIOUS WIND EVENTS, WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA INCLUDING
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND LAS VEGAS, AS WELL AS MOST OF INYO COUNTY
IN CALIFORNIA. STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT LOOK TO
BE DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED, FAVORING AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN FEATURES, THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE OWENS VALLEY, RED ROCK
CANYON, AND THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PUSH INLAND TUESDAY, WITH A LARGE
AND BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN BECOMING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
WEST. THIS ULTIMATELY MEANS THE THE DOMINANT TROUGH PATTERN WILL
HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES RELOAD THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT DOMINATES THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER, AND FAVOR THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH A FAVORABLY TIMED SHORTWAVE COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY LATE IN THE WEEK FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT FOR
THAT TO BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8KT AT
ISSUANCE, EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO START INCREASING BY 10Z, BECOMING
GUSTY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT BY 12Z. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY (70-90%) OF WIND GUSTS
OVER 25KT THEREAFTER. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 28KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING,
INCREASING TO 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT AFTER 09Z THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED,
THOUGH WITH BASES AROUND 12KFT OR HIGHER, OPERATIONAL IMPACTS DUE
TO CEILINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY
OPERATIONAL CONCERN.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAS VEGAS VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS TO KLAS, WITH GUSTS TO
20-30KT PREVALENT AT BOTH KVGT AND KHND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT KVGT IS EXPECTED TO SEE A LULL
BETWEEN AROUND 18-22Z WITH A BRIEF NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT BEFORE
WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, BECOMING GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. AT
KBIH, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WHEN WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SIERRA, RESULTING IN 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH SUNSET.
THEREAFTER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH WINDS REMAINING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
THEREAFTER. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION AT
KDAG, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING INCREASING
TO AROUND 35KT THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEED AND KIFP WON'T SEE GUSTY WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO 17-18Z, WITH
LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL THEN. AFTER 17-18Z,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS, DIMINISHING AFTER 02-03Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
DROPPING TO AROUND 8-10KT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 12KFT. LOCALIZED
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST MAY IMPACT KDAG,
HOWEVER, LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL PRECLUDES
MENTION IN THE TAF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...WOODS
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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