103
FXUS65 KVEF 300956
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
256 AM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH A POTENT STORM SYSTEM BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THE CREST OF THE EASTERN SIERRA WILL SEE A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PUSHES
INTO THE AREA, WE WILL SEE A 40 KNOT 700 MB JET BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. AS THIS JET SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT, WE WILL SEE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS PICK UP FROM THE
WEST. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, DECREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD 40 TO 55 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS FROM THE EASTERN
SIERRA ACROSS MOJAVE DESERT INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. AS SUCH,
THERE ARE MULTIPLE WIND HEADLINES THAT WILL GO INTO EFFECT ON
MONDAY. THE BIGGEST AREA OF UNCERTAINTY ON MONDAY WILL BE JUST HOW
STRONG WINDS WILL GET ACROSS INYO COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
MODELS SHOW A 40 TO 60 KNOT 700 MB JET SETTING UP ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
MONDAY. WITH AN ORIENTATION NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LAS VEGAS
AND OWENS VALLEY ARE A CONCERN. GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL AND
RESULTING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS, THE HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF INYO COUNTY, THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, SPRING
MOUNTAINS, NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NYE COUNTY HAS
NOT BEEN UPGRADED TO EITHER A WIND ADVISORY (40 TO 57 MPH WIND
GUSTS) OR A HIGH WIND WARNING (58+ MPH WIND GUSTS) AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF STRONG WINDS, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A 25 TO 50%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND A 15 TO 30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE SIERRA WILL INTERCEPT
MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE, WITH STORM TOTALS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A TENTH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ESMERALDA, NYE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. ASPENDELL WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA CREST. TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE LAST DAYS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR A WHILE AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL COOL US DOWN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONCE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, THE
RISK FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS SHIFTS TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. PLACES LIKE BARSTOW AND TWENTYNINE PALMS HAVE
OVER A 75% CHANCE OF SEEING 40+ MPH GUSTS, WHEREAS THE REST OF THE
CWA HAS GENERALLY 50% OR LESS ODDS. WITH THE TROUGH NOW FIRMLY OVER
OUR REGION AT THIS POINT, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD. FORECAST
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE SOME 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY'S, AND
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH LINGERING OVER OUR AREA AS IT
GETS REINFORCED WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF THE PACNW.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND PROMOTE CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THUS WINDS. BOTH RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW LOW TO MODERATE (20-
50%) PROBABILITIES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE
HIGHER PERCENTAGES IN WESTERN/SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, STILL NOT LOOKING VERY PROMISING. BEST CHANCES
(10-30%) CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEM
TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH'S EVOLUTION, HAVING
IT WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW. WHERE EXACTLY THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SETS UP AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED IN UNDERNEATH THE COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL DICTATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERY AND MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE, GENERALLY FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8KT AT
ISSUANCE, EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO START INCREASING BY 10Z, BECOMING
GUSTY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT BY 12Z. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY (70-90%) OF WIND GUSTS
OVER 25KT THEREAFTER. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 28KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING,
INCREASING TO 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT AFTER 09Z THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED,
THOUGH WITH BASES AROUND 12KFT OR HIGHER, OPERATIONAL IMPACTS DUE
TO CEILINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY
OPERATIONAL CONCERN.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAS VEGAS VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS TO KLAS, WITH GUSTS TO
20-30KT PREVALENT AT BOTH KVGT AND KHND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT KVGT IS EXPECTED TO SEE A LULL
BETWEEN AROUND 18-22Z WITH A BRIEF NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT BEFORE
WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, BECOMING GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. AT
KBIH, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WHEN WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SIERRA, RESULTING IN 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH SUNSET.
THEREAFTER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH WINDS REMAINING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
THEREAFTER. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION AT
KDAG, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING INCREASING
TO AROUND 35KT THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEED AND KIFP WON'T SEE GUSTY WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO 17-18Z, WITH
LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL THEN. AFTER 17-18Z,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS, DIMINISHING AFTER 02-03Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
DROPPING TO AROUND 8-10KT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 12KFT. LOCALIZED
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST MAY IMPACT KDAG,
HOWEVER, LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL PRECLUDES
MENTION IN THE TAF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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