012
FXUS65 KVEF 301518
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
820 AM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH A POTENT STORM SYSTEM BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.
UPDATE
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND ACTIVE
PACIFIC FLOW PATTERN IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING.
THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT SOME ELEVATED WINDS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH A VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THOUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, A RENEWED BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT, BUT BREEZY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND POCKETS OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT IN SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT
ONGOING WIND HEADLINES AND POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADES TODAY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. EARLY INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND LAS
VEGAS VALLEY AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
PRESSING UPDATE NEEDED.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THE CREST OF THE EASTERN SIERRA WILL SEE A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PUSHES
INTO THE AREA, WE WILL SEE A 40 KNOT 700 MB JET BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. AS THIS JET SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT, WE WILL SEE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS PICK UP FROM THE
WEST. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, DECREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD 40 TO 55 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS FROM THE EASTERN
SIERRA ACROSS MOJAVE DESERT INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. AS SUCH,
THERE ARE MULTIPLE WIND HEADLINES THAT WILL GO INTO EFFECT ON
MONDAY. THE BIGGEST AREA OF UNCERTAINTY ON MONDAY WILL BE JUST HOW
STRONG WINDS WILL GET ACROSS INYO COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
MODELS SHOW A 40 TO 60 KNOT 700 MB JET SETTING UP ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
MONDAY. WITH AN ORIENTATION NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LAS VEGAS
AND OWENS VALLEY ARE A CONCERN. GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL AND
RESULTING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS, THE HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF INYO COUNTY, THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, SPRING
MOUNTAINS, NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NYE COUNTY HAS
NOT BEEN UPGRADED TO EITHER A WIND ADVISORY (40 TO 57 MPH WIND
GUSTS) OR A HIGH WIND WARNING (58+ MPH WIND GUSTS) AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF STRONG WINDS, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A 25 TO 50%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND A 15 TO 30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE SIERRA WILL INTERCEPT
MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE, WITH STORM TOTALS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A TENTH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ESMERALDA, NYE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. ASPENDELL WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA CREST. TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
BE THE LAST DAYS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR A WHILE AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL COOL US DOWN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONCE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, THE
RISK FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS SHIFTS TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. PLACES LIKE BARSTOW AND TWENTYNINE PALMS HAVE
OVER A 75% CHANCE OF SEEING 40+ MPH GUSTS, WHEREAS THE REST OF THE
CWA HAS GENERALLY 50% OR LESS ODDS. WITH THE TROUGH NOW FIRMLY OVER
OUR REGION AT THIS POINT, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD. FORECAST
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE SOME 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY'S, AND
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH LINGERING OVER OUR AREA AS IT
GETS REINFORCED WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF THE PACNW.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND PROMOTE CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THUS WINDS. BOTH RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW LOW TO MODERATE (20-
50%) PROBABILITIES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE
HIGHER PERCENTAGES IN WESTERN/SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, STILL NOT LOOKING VERY PROMISING. BEST CHANCES
(10-30%) CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEM
TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH'S EVOLUTION, HAVING
IT WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW. WHERE EXACTLY THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SETS UP AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED IN UNDERNEATH THE COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL DICTATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERY AND MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE, GENERALLY FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 12Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER INCREASING TO OVER 25 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND 30 KNOTS LATE OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT OCCASIONAL LULLS IN GUST
INTENSITY MAY OCCUR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE
12KFT PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THIS ALSO INCLUDES A PERIOD OF LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AT KVGT. LIKEWISE,
WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST AT KDAG, INTENSIFYING LATER THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF GUSTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FOR KEED,
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR
KIFP, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH EARLIER IN
THE EVENING. LASTLY, AT KBIH, A PUSH OF WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON AND DECREASES IN THE EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHEAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 12KFT PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...MELTZER
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