723
FXUS65 KVEF 310455
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AS A POWERFUL SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. PATCHY BLOWING
DUST CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY AND
TOMORROW BEFORE COOLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AT TIMES, AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SIERRA MONDAY.
UPDATE
AS EXPECTED, WINDS BEGAN TO PICK UP TODAY WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IN OUR AREA, MOST LOCATIONS GUSTED 25-
40 MPH, WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH LARGELY CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SAN BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTIES. WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE
FURTHER TOMORROW AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM SAGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY, AND THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAS VEGAS AND OWENS VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK FOR
IMPACTFUL WINDS SHIFTS TO WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ON TUESDAY
WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP TO ~10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION-WISE, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-4" POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA ON MONDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ISOLATED, LIGHT, AND GENERALLY NON-
IMPACTFUL.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN ELEVATED THANKS TO AN ENHANCED 700MB FLOW
OF 30-40 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT NEAR BARSTOW, WHERE IT'S CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO 46 MPH AT BARSTOW-DAGGETT AIRPORT. A FEW MORE ISOLATED
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH OR HIGHER HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OTHER AREAS
INCLUDING KINGMAN AND DESERT ROCK, THOUGH OVERALL WIND GUSTS OF
THAT MAGNITUDE HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL EXPECTED TOMORROW AS A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A STRONG 80-90KT
500MB JET WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND EXTEND EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS JET WILL TRANSLATE TO 50-60 KNOTS OF 700MB
CROSS-BARRIER FLOW HITTING THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE PROFILE
FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS, WITH A RIDGETOP LEVEL STABLE LAYER, VERY
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN REACHING AS LOW AS 900MB,
AND A FAVORABLE WIND ORIENTATION TO MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS
LEADS TO CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND THE OWENS VALLEY/SIERRA REGION WHERE A
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED. STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS
PARTICULAR WIND EVENT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAREST TERRAIN FEATURES,
THOUGH WAVES WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD IN WAVES, SO WIND
SPEEDS MAY PULSE UP AND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR THE OWENS VALLEY, THE GREATEST RISK OF STRONG WINDS
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE US-395 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF BIG
PINE. FOR LAS VEGAS, STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO. WITHIN THESE AREAS,
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED, JUST
NOT QUITE AS INTENSE WITHOUT THE DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. WIDESPREAD
WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY, AND THEIR COVERAGE
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MORONGO
BASIN/YUCCA VALLEY AREAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT TO BECOME LIMITED TO MAINLY SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
TUESDAY WHERE THE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN VALID THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM THE WIND, SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AS PACIFIC MOISTURE WITHIN THE FAST
PACIFIC FLOW IS INTERCEPTED BY THE TOPOGRAPHY. NOT EXPECTING
ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, BUT 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE SIERRA, AND SOME VERY
LIGHT SPILLOVER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OWENS VALLEY.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONCE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, THE
RISK FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS SHIFTS TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. PLACES LIKE BARSTOW AND TWENTYNINE PALMS HAVE
OVER A 75% CHANCE OF SEEING 40+ MPH GUSTS, WHEREAS THE REST OF THE
CWA HAS GENERALLY 50% OR LESS ODDS. WITH THE TROUGH NOW FIRMLY OVER
OUR REGION AT THIS POINT, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD. FORECAST
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE SOME 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY'S, AND
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH LINGERING OVER OUR AREA AS IT
GETS REINFORCED WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF THE PACNW.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND PROMOTE CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THUS WINDS. BOTH RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW LOW TO MODERATE (20-
50%) PROBABILITIES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE
HIGHER PERCENTAGES IN WESTERN/SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, STILL NOT LOOKING VERY PROMISING. BEST CHANCES
(10-30%) CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEM
TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH'S EVOLUTION, HAVING
IT WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW. WHERE EXACTLY THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SETS UP AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED IN UNDERNEATH THE COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL DICTATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERY AND MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE, GENERALLY FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
GUSTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO 20-25KT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
09Z TO 30-35KT. BASED ON HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, THE WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO COME IN WAVES OFF OF THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS, WITH PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOLLOWED BY BRIEF LULLS WITH GUSTS DROPPING TO 20-25KT AS WINDS
BACK SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTH, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
ONCE AGAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS WELL AS
THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS IS TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE SPECIFIC MENTION IN
THE TAF, THOUGH EXPECT THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE
MOST IMPACTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO 40KT
EXPECTED AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACH 30KT, WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS OVER 40KT POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AFTER SUNSET AS
WINDS DIMINISH BUT ELEVATED AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, BY
01/08Z, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST, WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30KT THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
LOCALIZED, TRANSIENT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST ARE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PERIODIC
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAS VEGAS VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS TO KLAS, IN THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-35KT WILL BE COMMON, WITH WINDS
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KT POSSIBLE. WHILE KHND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, KVGT IS EXPECTED TO SEE A
SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT PRIOR TO 01/00Z, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY
THEREAFTER. WINDS AT KBIH WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING SHARPLY BY
AROUND 17Z WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP OFF OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT ARE EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WHEN WINDS VEER MORE TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25KT SUSTAINED WITH 35KT GUSTS. BY EARLY
EVENING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND DECREASE
SOMEWHAT, BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KDAG, WITH GUSTS
TO 25-35KT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT WITH GUSTS TO 40-45KT POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER. IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WINDS WILL SHIFT
BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, FIRST BECOMING
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KIFP AROUND 10Z, AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT KEED BY 18Z. KIFP WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 20-30KT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, DIMINISHING AFTER
02Z, WHEREAS WINDS AT KEED GUST TO 20-25KT MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNSET. LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT AREA TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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