517
FXUS65 KVEF 311140
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
440 AM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
A POWERFUL SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AS A RESULT OF
THESE WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE
COOLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY, OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE MAJORITY
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AS A POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 40+ MPH WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN INSTANCES OF BLOWING DUST, HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, CHOPPY WINDS AND DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES, AND UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS BEING
BLOWN AWAY. ON A SMALLER SCALE, WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, OWENS VALLEY, SPRING MOUNTAINS,
WESTERN LAS VEGAS VALLEY, NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY TODAY. IN THE OWENS VALLEY, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA WITH A 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER MAKING IT TO HIGHWAY 395 SOUTH OF
LONE PINE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY, WE ARE LOOKING AT AROUND A 60% CHANCE OF DOWNSLOPE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IMPACTING AREAS WEST OF RAINBOW
BOULEVARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON TUESDAY WE WILL
SEE THE WIND THREAT BECOME ISOLATED TO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF STRONG WINDS, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. WHILE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT ON THE TABLE DUE TO THE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN HAVE AROUND A 20 TO 50% CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT
SHOWERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE CREST OF THE SIERRA, WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. LOWER IN ELEVATION, AT ASPENDELL(8,400'), SNOW TOTALS WILL
BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE SHOULD THEY
SEE THE HIGHER END SCENARIO VERIFY.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE OVERHEAD TROUGH GETS REINFORCED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE PACNW. WHILE THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, THE ADDITIONAL COOLING OF THE UPPER-LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER SOME
MINOR INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM TPH AND IGM SHOW ANYWHERE
FROM 50 TO 250 J/KG OF CAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER) ARE POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES ARE ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LINCOLN, MOHAVE, AND CLARK
COUNTIES WHERE POPS ARE 30-60%. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET, SO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MERGE
INTO THE LARGER TROUGH, IT TRIES TO WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD.
WHERE THIS OCCURS, EXPECT A SIMILAR SETUP AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOW'S PLACEMENT,
LEADING TO LOW (LESS THAN 30%) POPS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE SAME
AREAS. AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH'S
EVOLUTION, CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE-WEEK/WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.
BEYOND THE PRECIPITATION, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH KEEPS
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AROUND. SOME LINGERING WIND
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT OTHERWISE THE CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WINDS
REMAINS BELOW 50% ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN
THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THE
PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. GUSTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL LULLS OF WEAKER GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AS WAVES MOVE OFF OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. A FEW
GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A STRONGER
MOUNTAIN WAVE. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST ARE MOST
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES IN THE
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND TAKE AN EASTERLY TO DIRECTION IN
THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT
THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVENTUALLY, WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AND TAKE A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIGHTEN IN THROUGH TOMORROW AND A DIURNAL WIND PATTERN
WILL RESUME. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS PASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...STRONG WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTS PEAK IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PREVAIL AT KHND THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD, BUT A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST APPEARS LIKELY AT KVGT THIS
EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST ARE MOST LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBIH, SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL MAY BRING LOW CLOUDS AND LEAD TO SOME REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY UNTIL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. WINDS INCREASE AND PEAK
OUT OF THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MAY OCCUR DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE SIERRA. WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT KDAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING KEED AND KIFP TODAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND DECREASE IN THE EVENING AT KIFP, BUT INCREASED WESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT KEED OVERNIGHT. SCT TO
BKN HIGH CLOUDS PASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...MELTZER
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