815
FXUS65 KVEF 312043
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
143 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
POWERFUL SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AS A RESULT OF THESE
WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE COOLING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN RAMPING UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
DEEP TROUGH THAT IS SAGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. SO FAR,
STRONGEST WINDS OF 45-55 MPH HAVE BEEN ACROSS POCKETS OF THE
OWENS VALLEY, AND THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY,
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONGEST 700 AND
850MB FLOW WILL DIP SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN FORECAST, AND THE BEST CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 58 MPH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF RAINBOW BLVD AND EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO RED ROCK CANYON. STRONG WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
OWENS VALLEY, THOUGH SOME LIGHT SPILL OVER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY HAVE KEPT SOME OF THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AT BAY. NONETHELESS, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG PINE, THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THEIR FOCUS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT,
BECOMING LIMITED TO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS (PROBABLE VIRGA IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS) WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE OVERHEAD TROUGH GETS REINFORCED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE PACNW. WHILE THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, THE ADDITIONAL COOLING OF THE UPPER-LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER SOME
MINOR INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM TPH AND IGM SHOW ANYWHERE
FROM 50 TO 250 J/KG OF CAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER) ARE POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES ARE ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LINCOLN, MOHAVE, AND CLARK
COUNTIES WHERE POPS ARE 30-60%. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET, SO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MERGE
INTO THE LARGER TROUGH, IT TRIES TO WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD.
WHERE THIS OCCURS, EXPECT A SIMILAR SETUP AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOW'S PLACEMENT,
LEADING TO LOW (LESS THAN 30%) POPS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE SAME
AREAS. AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH'S
EVOLUTION, CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE-WEEK/WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.
BEYOND THE PRECIPITATION, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH KEEPS
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AROUND. SOME LINGERING WIND
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT OTHERWISE THE CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WINDS
REMAINS BELOW 50% ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN
THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. LOFTED
DUST AND SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE AT BEST. DURING THE EVENING, THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES A
BIT TRICKIER WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE SETUP. MANY HI-RES MODELS
EXPLICITLY RESOLVE A ROTOR FEATURE OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN
THE 01Z - 09Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH, BUT WHERE EXACTLY IT SETS UP AND FOR HOW LONG IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IN SHORT, THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO SCENARIOS FOR
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE EXPECTED OUTCOME IS ROTOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH EASTERLY BREEZES AT THE
TERMINAL AND NOTEWORTHY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE ~35 KNOT
WESTERLIES AT ~2000 FEET. HOWEVER, IF THE ROTOR DOES NOT DEVELOP OR
SETS UP EAST/WEST OF THE TERMINAL, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT, SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. PEAK GUSTS OF 30-45 KNOTS LIKELY IN
THESE AREAS, WHILE THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BE MORE IN
THE 20-35 KNOT RANGE. WIND FORECASTS FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND
OWENS VALLEY BECOME A BIT TRICKIER THIS EVENING WITH THE MOUNTAIN
WAVE SETUP. MANY HI-RES MODELS EXPLICITLY RESOLVE A ROTOR FEATURE
OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN THE 01Z - 09Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS MODERATE TO HIGH, BUT WHERE EXACTLY IT
SETS UP AND FOR HOW LONG IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. UNDERNEATH OR JUST
EAST OF THE ROTOR, EXPECT EASTERLY BREEZES AT THE SURFACE WITH ~35
KNOT WESTERLIES AT 2000 FEET, LEADING TO NOTABLE WIND SHEAR. THIS
APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT VGT AND LAS, BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
AT HND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN THE OWENS VALLEY, ROTOR DEVELOPMENT IS NOT AS CLEAR, BUT A
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED SOMETIME BETWEEN 02Z AND
07Z. DEPENDING ON FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY AND WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT,
SMOKE FROM THE SILVER FIRE NORTH OF BIH MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AT THE AIRPORT. CLOUD-WISE, LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED AT BIH
AS PRECIPITATION TRIES TO SPILL OVER THE SIERRA INTO THE OWENS
VALLEY. CIGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10KFT, WITH A 25% CHANCE OF
GETTING DOWN TO 6500 FEET. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT
OR ABOVE 15KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...WOODS
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