688
FXUS65 KVEF 010430
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
POWERFUL SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AS A RESULT OF THESE
WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE COOLING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION, SO THE
WIND HEADLINES FOR SOME ZONES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.
FOR THE REMAINING ZONES, GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
REMAINING HEADLINES INCLUDE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY, SPRING MOUNTAINS, WESTERN CLARK COUNTY, AND SOUTHERN NYE
COUNTY THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2AM PDT AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK, THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING LAKE
MEAD AND LAKE MOHAVE, SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY, EASTERN CLARK COUNTY,
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY UNTIL 2AM PDT. ELEVATED WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE WEST ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, WITH THEIR
HEADLINES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON (AND INTO LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO). TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
COULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS (PRIMARILY VIRGA), AND CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE, WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND
250 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, AS IT REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN RAMPING UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
DEEP TROUGH THAT IS SAGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. SO FAR,
STRONGEST WINDS OF 45-55 MPH HAVE BEEN ACROSS POCKETS OF THE
OWENS VALLEY, AND THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY,
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONGEST 700 AND
850MB FLOW WILL DIP SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN FORECAST, AND THE BEST CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 58 MPH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF RAINBOW BLVD AND EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO RED ROCK CANYON. STRONG WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
OWENS VALLEY, THOUGH SOME LIGHT SPILL OVER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY HAVE KEPT SOME OF THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AT BAY. NONETHELESS, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG PINE, THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THEIR FOCUS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT,
BECOMING LIMITED TO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS (PROBABLE VIRGA IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS) WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE OVERHEAD TROUGH GETS REINFORCED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE PACNW. WHILE THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, THE ADDITIONAL COOLING OF THE UPPER-LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER SOME
MINOR INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM TPH AND IGM SHOW ANYWHERE
FROM 50 TO 250 J/KG OF CAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER) ARE POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES ARE ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LINCOLN, MOHAVE, AND CLARK
COUNTIES WHERE POPS ARE 30-60%. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET, SO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MERGE
INTO THE LARGER TROUGH, IT TRIES TO WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD.
WHERE THIS OCCURS, EXPECT A SIMILAR SETUP AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOW'S PLACEMENT,
LEADING TO LOW (LESS THAN 30%) POPS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE SAME
AREAS. AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH'S
EVOLUTION, CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE-WEEK/WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.
BEYOND THE PRECIPITATION, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH KEEPS
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AROUND. SOME LINGERING WIND
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT OTHERWISE THE CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WINDS
REMAINS BELOW 50% ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN
THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 30-40KT EXPECTED. THE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A ROTOR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS, IMPACTING KLAS, FROM ROUGHLY 02Z-07Z. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS ROTOR, SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST, WHILE WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN
STRONG OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECISE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, THUS WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND
AS NEEDED THIS EVENING. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS FEATURE, PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 08Z AS WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RESUME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS DROPPING
TO AROUND 10KT, AHEAD OF A NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT AROUND 16Z, AND A
RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO LOFTED BLOWING DUST.
OTHERWISE, CEILINGS ABOVE 10-15KFT WILL MITIGATE ANY CEILING-
RELATED OPERATIONAL IMPACTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY, TRENDS WILL ROUGHLY MIRROR THOSE AT KLAS, WITH A ROTOR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT KVGT BETWEEN 02Z-07Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WHILE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN GUSTY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT KHND, WHICH HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PROGS TO BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER, EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO LARGELY PREVAIL AT KHND
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
WINDS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND
12-13Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10KT. BY MID
MORNING, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, BECOMING GUSTY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AT KVGT. AT KBIH, WINDS HAVE REMAINED EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS NOT
MAKING IT TO THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER SUNSET.
THEREAFTER, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS
TO 18-25KT, PRIOR TO A WESTERLY SHIFT AFTER 18Z WHEN WINDS
INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 30KT EXPECTED. WINDS AT KDAG WILL REMAIN
UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE WEST, WITH GUSTS TO 30-40KT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. KEED AND KIFP WILL SEE ELEVATED AND AT LEAST
INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BEFORE GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THEREAFTER, KIFP WILL
SEE WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10KT, VARYING BETWEEN THE
SOUTH AND NORTHEAST, AND KEED WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT
WITH A RETURN OF 20-25KT GUSTS DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...SOULAT
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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