678
FXUS65 KVEF 010448
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
POWERFUL SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AS A RESULT OF THESE
WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE COOLING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION, SO THE
WIND HEADLINES FOR SOME ZONES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.
FOR THE REMAINING ZONES, GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
REMAINING HEADLINES INCLUDE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY, SPRING MOUNTAINS, WESTERN CLARK COUNTY, AND SOUTHERN NYE
COUNTY THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2AM PDT AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK, THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING LAKE
MEAD AND LAKE MOHAVE, SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY, EASTERN CLARK COUNTY,
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY UNTIL 2AM PDT. ELEVATED WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE WEST ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, WITH THEIR
HEADLINES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON (AND INTO LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO). TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
COULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS (PRIMARILY VIRGA), AND CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE, WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND
250 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, AS IT REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN RAMPING UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
DEEP TROUGH THAT IS SAGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. SO FAR,
STRONGEST WINDS OF 45-55 MPH HAVE BEEN ACROSS POCKETS OF THE
OWENS VALLEY, AND THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY,
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONGEST 700 AND
850MB FLOW WILL DIP SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN FORECAST, AND THE BEST CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 58 MPH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF RAINBOW BLVD AND EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO RED ROCK CANYON. STRONG WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
OWENS VALLEY, THOUGH SOME LIGHT SPILL OVER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY HAVE KEPT SOME OF THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AT BAY. NONETHELESS, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG PINE, THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THEIR FOCUS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT,
BECOMING LIMITED TO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS (PROBABLE VIRGA IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS) WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE OVERHEAD TROUGH GETS REINFORCED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE PACNW. WHILE THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, THE ADDITIONAL COOLING OF THE UPPER-LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER SOME
MINOR INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM TPH AND IGM SHOW ANYWHERE
FROM 50 TO 250 J/KG OF CAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER) ARE POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES ARE ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LINCOLN, MOHAVE, AND CLARK
COUNTIES WHERE POPS ARE 30-60%. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET, SO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MERGE
INTO THE LARGER TROUGH, IT TRIES TO WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD.
WHERE THIS OCCURS, EXPECT A SIMILAR SETUP AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOW'S PLACEMENT,
LEADING TO LOW (LESS THAN 30%) POPS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE SAME
AREAS. AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH'S
EVOLUTION, CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE-WEEK/WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.
BEYOND THE PRECIPITATION, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH KEEPS
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AROUND. SOME LINGERING WIND
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT OTHERWISE THE CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WINDS
REMAINS BELOW 50% ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN
THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT. THIS EVENING, A ROTOR HAS DEVELOPED
DOWNWIND OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, IMPACTING KLAS. AT THE SURFACE,
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT
GUSTING TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 08Z, WITH WINDS ALOFT
REMAINING STRONG OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THEREAFTER, WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RESUME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS TO
25KT. PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, GUSTS WILL DIMINISH, WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING TO AROUND 10KT. WINDS AROUND 10-12KT WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, VARYING BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST.
INTERMITTENT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION DURING A SPECIFIC TIME FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 15KFT MITIGATING ANY CEILING-RELATED
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT KVGT AND KHND, WITH BOTH TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO BE BEYOND THE REACH OF THE ROTOR IMPACTING KLAS. GUSTS
TO AROUND 25-30KT ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS, BEFORE GUSTS
DIMINISH AROUND 12-13Z. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST, BECOMING ELEVATED AND INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY AT VGT,
WITH GUSTS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AT KHND WHEN WINDS
AGAIN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KBIH
THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT EXPECTED
EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, WINDS BACK TO
THE WEST, INCREASING TO 20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT, THEN
VEERING TO THE NORTH AFTER SUNSET, REMAINING GUSTY. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE RULE AT KDAG, WITH GUSTS TO 30-40KT EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KEED WILL HAVE WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL, WITH SOME VARIABILITY, AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, INCREASING TO
30-35KT AFTER SUNSET. AT KIFP, WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE VARIABLE,
BUT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BECOMING GUSTY BY EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT AT ALL BUT KBIH WHERE CEILINGS AROUND
9-10KFT ARE EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...SOULAT
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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