335
FXUS65 KVEF 011141
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
441 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY FOR MOST OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE MULTIPLE WIND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, COOLING
FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO RECOVER ON THURSDAY, RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA,AND EAST-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH. WHILE SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY THAN THEY SAW
YESTERDAY, THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MOST OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AND TODAY ISN'T EVEN GOING TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
OUR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TODAY AND TOMORROW
BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST ON THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, REINFORCING THE TROUGH AND KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES DOWN ANOTHER 2 TO 7 DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO
ENHANCE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
ALLOW US TO TRY TO CAPITALIZE ON THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE VIA
ISOLATED SHOWERS/VIRGA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF LINCOLN, CLARK, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SEEING SHOWERS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A 30 TO 60% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST, THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE MOJAVE PRESERVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WILL SEE A 20
TO 30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT PRECIPITATION, VARIABLE BREEZY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING. WITH SNOW-LEVELS AROUND 4,500 TO 5,000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY,
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER ON THURSDAY AND CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE TROUGH PREPARES TO MAKE ITS EXCEPTIONALLY SLOW EXIT FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE BROAD AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA ON THURSDAY BEFORE IT PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE GROWING TO OUR WEST, THIS WILL
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA BENEATH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAT WILL
INCREASE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. CHANCE OF 40 MPH WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IS 30-50% AND 40-60%, RESPECTIVELY, WITH GREATER CHANCES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. POPS WILL HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCES PERSIST IN OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. LITTLE-TO-NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK, SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AT-OR-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL BE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NEXT
CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
BY MID MORNING, WHICH IS SHOWN IN A SOLID MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. ASSUMING THIS SHIFT OCCURS,
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO WESTERLY BY NOON OR SO. AFTER A
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE NEXT CONCERN COMES
LATE TONIGHT, WHEN WINDS COULD SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST AS MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND CEILINGS COULD DROP BELOW 8000 FEET WITH ANY
SHOWERS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE SIERRA CREST SOUTHWARD INTO THE
DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING AND PUSH
INTO THE NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NEVADA, WHILE WINDS IN
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY CONTINUE GUSTING 35 TO 50 KNOTS FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH
ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION, BEGINNING ON THE
SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS
EVENING, THEN SPREADING THROUGH LINCOLN, CLARK, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...MORGAN
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