378
FXUS65 KVEF 011934
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1233 PM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 8 TO
12 DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, COOLING
FURTHER TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR VEGAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER ON
THURSDAY, AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT AND MORONGO BASIN. ELSEWHERE, WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DECREASE, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SUSTAINED SPEEDS BELOW 25 MPH. WEAK
FORCING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN OR VIRGA SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE VERY DRY,
SO LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND UNDER THE SHOWERS OR VIRGA THAT DO
DEVELOP. SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL MAY EVEN BE SEEN IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. BY
TOMORROW, A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND SETTING THE
AREA UP FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 150 TO 200 J/KG BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE VEGAS VALLEY, AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. CAPE WILL BE WEAKER OVER CLARK COUNTY, SO ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON MT. CHARLESTON AND THE HIGHER PEAKS NORTH
OF PIOCHE. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY,
THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE, AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL DROP AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 8 DEGREES
TOMORROW AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO REBOUND THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING
SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE BROAD AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA ON THURSDAY BEFORE IT PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE GROWING TO OUR WEST, THIS WILL
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA BENEATH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAT WILL
INCREASE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. CHANCE OF 40 MPH WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IS 30-50% AND 40-60%, RESPECTIVELY, WITH GREATER CHANCES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. POPS WILL HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCES PERSIST IN OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. LITTLE-TO-NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK, SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AT-OR-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS WILL BE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL
APPROXIMATELY 21Z BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST. WIND
SPEEDS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 7-10 KTS, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL THAT WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ONCE THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED, EXPECT TO SEE
WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CONCERN COMES LATE TONIGHT, WHEN
WINDS COULD SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
AND CEILINGS COULD DROP BELOW 8000 FEET WITH ANY SHOWERS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE SIERRA CREST SOUTHWARD INTO THE
DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING AND PUSH
INTO THE NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NEVADA, WHILE WINDS IN
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY CONTINUE GUSTING 35 TO 50 KNOTS FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH
ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION, BEGINNING ON THE
SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS
EVENING, THEN SPREADING THROUGH LINCOLN, CLARK, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...PLANZ
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...GORELOW
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