012
FXUS65 KVEF 012158
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 PM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 8 TO
12 DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, COOLING
FURTHER TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR VEGAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER ON
THURSDAY, AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT AND MORONGO BASIN. ELSEWHERE, WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DECREASE, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SUSTAINED SPEEDS BELOW 25 MPH. WEAK
FORCING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN OR VIRGA SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE VERY DRY,
SO LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND UNDER THE SHOWERS OR VIRGA THAT DO
DEVELOP. SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL MAY EVEN BE SEEN IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. BY
TOMORROW, A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND SETTING THE
AREA UP FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 150 TO 200 J/KG BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE VEGAS VALLEY, AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. CAPE WILL BE WEAKER OVER CLARK COUNTY, SO ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON MT. CHARLESTON AND THE HIGHER PEAKS NORTH
OF PIOCHE. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY,
THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE, AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL DROP AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 8 DEGREES
TOMORROW AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO REBOUND THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING
SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE BROAD AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA ON THURSDAY BEFORE IT PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH A PACIFIC RIDGE GROWING TO OUR WEST, THIS WILL
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA BENEATH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAT WILL
INCREASE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. CHANCE OF 40 MPH WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IS 30-50% AND 40-60%, RESPECTIVELY, WITH GREATER CHANCES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. POPS WILL HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCES PERSIST IN OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. LITTLE-TO-NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK, SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AT-OR-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME
GRAUPEL AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE NEXT
CONCERN COMES LATE TONIGHT, WHEN WINDS COULD SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST
AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS COULD DROP BELOW 8000 FEET WITH ANY
SHOWERS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
WITH KDAG SEEING GUSTS OVER 35 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS AT KBIH ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTH AFTER 02Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAF. IT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD IMPACT THE SITES
THROUGH 02Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT NEAR KIFP AND
KEED WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 12 TO 22 KTS. WINDS IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, MAINLY AFFECTING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME
SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...PLANZ
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...GORELOW
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