885
FXUS65 KVEF 230214
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
715 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
OUR NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
UPDATE
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING HAS ALLOWED FOR CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TO
SPREAD INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF
I-15. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SAG SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE SOME
MINOR HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENTS FOR WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT BREEZIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATE NECESSARY.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ROLL THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE A FEW
DEGREES BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE.
DESPITE THE COOLING, HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS LOW AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP EACH DAY, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH
WILL BE IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE UNLIKELY, A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG HIGH TERRAIN.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF A
WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE BROAD
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW, BUT THERE REMAINS QUITE A SPREAD
REGARDING DETAILS OF THE LOW SUCH AS ITS STRENGTH, MOISTURE
CONTENT, TRAJECTORY, AND TIMING. SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO FAVOR A
CLOSED LOW UPON MOVING INLAND, WITH THE ECMWF MEANS INDICATING A
NEGATIVELY- TILTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA AS THIS OCCURS. MOISTURE INCREASES TO 120-150
PERCENT OF NORMAL (NORMAL BEING AROUND 0.30" FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR).
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CONSIDER THE NEED FOR WIND
HEADLINES AS WE GET CLOSER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS, TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW-NORMAL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR
LAS VEGAS HEADING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. MENTIONABLE POPS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WITH 10-20% POPS
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN INYO, NORTHERN ESMERALDA, NORTHERN
NYE, AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 00Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...OCCASIONAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST GUSTS HAVE DEVELOPED AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THEY HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT. THIS
GENERAL TREND OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z WHEN BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. WITH THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS, THERE IS AT
LEAST A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS OVER 10KT AND A 20% CHANCE FOR
GUSTS OVER 20KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH SOUTH WINDS
AT 8KT OR LESS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 60%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 20KT. EXPECT 20-25KT GUSTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL VALLEY TAF SITES. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT 15KFT OR
ABOVE, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25KT GUSTS EXPECTED. KBIH MAY STILL SEE ANOTHER
WEST PUSH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 00Z WITH WINDS OVER 10KT AND GUSTS
OVER 20KT POSSIBLE IN THIS OCCURS. IF THIS DOESN'T OCCUR, CONTINUED
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KBIH BEFORE LIGHT NORTHWEST
DEVELOP BY 05Z. A PUSH OF WEST WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH KDAG WITH
GUST UP TO 25KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 00Z BEFORE GUSTS EVEN BUT
CONTINUED WEST WINDS AT 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD FOLLOW GENERAL WIND
PATTERNS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS TO 20-30KT
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER EXPECTED AS CIGS REMAIN AT 15KFT OR
HIGHER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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