975
FXUS65 KVEF 230446
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
946 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
OUR NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
UPDATE
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING HAS ALLOWED FOR CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TO
SPREAD INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF
I-15. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SAG SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE SOME
MINOR HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENTS FOR WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT BREEZIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATE NECESSARY.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ROLL THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE A FEW
DEGREES BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE.
DESPITE THE COOLING, HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS LOW AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP EACH DAY, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH
WILL BE IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE UNLIKELY, A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG HIGH TERRAIN.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF A
WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE BROAD
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW, BUT THERE REMAINS QUITE A SPREAD
REGARDING DETAILS OF THE LOW SUCH AS ITS STRENGTH, MOISTURE
CONTENT, TRAJECTORY, AND TIMING. SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO FAVOR A
CLOSED LOW UPON MOVING INLAND, WITH THE ECMWF MEANS INDICATING A
NEGATIVELY- TILTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA AS THIS OCCURS. MOISTURE INCREASES TO 120-150
PERCENT OF NORMAL (NORMAL BEING AROUND 0.30" FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR).
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CONSIDER THE NEED FOR WIND
HEADLINES AS WE GET CLOSER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS, TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW-NORMAL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR
LAS VEGAS HEADING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. MENTIONABLE POPS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WITH 10-20% POPS
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN INYO, NORTHERN ESMERALDA, NORTHERN
NYE, AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING, INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12KT. TOWARD
20Z, WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT, AND THESE
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KT ARE LIKELY
(60-80% CHANCE), THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 25KT REMAINS LOW
(ROUGHLY 30%) DURING THE LATE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES
AT OR ABOVE 12KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LAS VEGAS VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL TREND SIMILARLY TO KLAS, WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS AT KBIH WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHERLY UNTIL AROUND 22Z, WHEN A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND VEER TO
THE NORTH. ELEVATED AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KDAG
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 30KT FROM 18Z
ONWARD. AT KEED AND KIFP, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OR
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS AT BOTH TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 20-25KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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