222
FXUS65 KVEF 240213
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
715 PM PDT WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN BREEZY
AFTERNOONS AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REDUCED OUR
HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH REGIONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT BUT A SECOND, STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND KEEPING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES GOING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA MAY ALSO BE SEEN. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND, EXCEPT FOR THE
HIGHEST PEAKS NORTH OF THE VEGAS VALLEY, WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (20 TO 30 MPH), BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BEING SEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE
PASSES, HEIGHTS WILL FALL SLIGHTLY, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE COOLING A FEW DEGREES TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY
AND SHIFT INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HAS
COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL IDEA WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. NONETHELESS, GUSTY WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH, ALONG WITH SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TERRAIN-
DRIVEN SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS, SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY NECESSARY BUMPS IN PRECIP CHANCES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS THE WEEKEND
TROUGH DEPARTS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HOW QUICKLY IT DEPARTS
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS STILL
LIKELY TO BEGIN MONDAY, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20-25KT REPORTED SO FAR AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z WHEN THERE IS A 30%-40% CHANCE FOR
GUSTS OVER 25KT BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SOUTH GUSTS WILL
END 03Z-06Z, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS AT
OR ABOVE 10KT THROUGH 09Z SO EXPECTED CONTINUED ELEVATED WINDS
SPEEDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DROP
BELOW 8KT BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THURSDAY MORNING AT KLAS AND VGT WITH
LIGHT DIURNAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. KHND WILL REMAIN SOUTH
AROUND 10KT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z AND SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN TODAY'S WINDS AS GUSTS TOP OUT AT AROUND 20KT. OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS AROUND 20KFT-25KFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. KBIH SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PUSH OF WEST WINDS AROUND 00Z
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
BECOME DIURNAL BY THURSDAY EARLY MORNING EVERYWHERE EXPECT AROUND
KDAG WHERE CONTINUED WEST WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25KT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE NOT AS
GUSTY AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY. OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT-25KFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FURTHER SOUTH.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...PLANZ
LONG TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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