653
FXUS65 KVEF 261748
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1048 AM PDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, WITH A
DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMING BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.
UPDATE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 HPA RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. AS
THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA WILL TIGHTEN, MAINTAINING ELEVATED AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM DEATH
VALLEY SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND INTO THE MORONGO
BASIN, WHERE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH ADDITIONAL
CAUSE FOR CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AT LAKES MEAD AND MOHAVE WHERE
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO
THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEND TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND EASTERN SIERRA, WITH SNOW
EXPECTED MAINLY ABOVE 5000-6000 FEET. OVERALL, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED
TO FEEL SHARPLY COOLER, ONLY REACHING THE 60S AND 70S FOR MOST,
WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION..224 AM PDT SAT APR 26 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF, CURRENTLY CHURNING OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION, MOVING THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS LOW PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TODAY WE WILL SEE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DEATH VALLEY,
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, AND THE MORONGO BASIN THROUGH 11:00 PM
THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OVER LAKE MEAD AND
LAKE MOHAVE, WE WILL SEE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL WATER CRAFT. AS
SUCH, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 8:00 PM THIS
EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
INYO COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-25 TO -30 DEGREES
CELSIUS AT 500 MB) AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE, PRODUCING LIGHTNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 5,000 TO
6,000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA BEGINNING AT 7:00 AM PDT
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH 11:00 AM PDT TOMORROW.
ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6,000 AND 8,000 FEET IN THE EASTERN SIERRA WILL
SEE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS IN THE SIERRA CREST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE TO THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AROUND 7 TO 12 DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY TO TODAY. THESE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK
AROUND ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. WHILE SUNDAY WILL
BE COOLER, WE WILL SEE WINDS SETTLE DOWN WITH LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
MONDAY, HELPING TO MAINTAIN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AFTERWARDS, THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TUESDAY ONWARDS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL SEND HIGHS BACK INTO ABOVE
NORMAL TERRITORY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS INCLUDES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR LAS VEGAS AND
IN THE 90S FOR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHER THAN INCREASING
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWEST GUSTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS PEAKING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z. AFTER
SUNSET, WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT, ALTHOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS WILL END
TEMPORARILY BEFORE SUNRISE ONLY TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING, AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL IN THE VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 12KFT AGL. NORTHWEST OF THE VALLEY
ALONG THE BEATTY CORRIDOR, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...CONDITIONS AT THE LAS VEGAS AREA TAF SITES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DESCRIBED FOR HARRY REID ABOVE, EXCEPT A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS POSSIBLE AT VGT LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS AT KBIH WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VCSH IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. THESE SHOWERS COULD RESULT
IN ERRATIC GUST DIRECTIONS AT TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AT KDAG, WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST, WITH GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KTS. VCSH IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z THROUGH SUNSET. THE WEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL STILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVENING, FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
TODAY. AWAY FROM ANY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOP, FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH BASES GENERALLY REMAINING AOA 12KFT
AGL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...PHILLIPSON
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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