976
FXUS65 KVEF 262155
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 PM PDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INYO AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA, WITH LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS MONDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING MIDWEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE WEST, AHEAD
OF A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS
THIS LOW SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT, YIELDING CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR DEATH VALLEY, THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, AND MORONGO BASIN, WHERE WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40 MPH. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE MEAD, WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS CHANNELED THROUGH THE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH, YIELDING 1 TO 3 FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS. THUS, BOATERS AND RECREATIONALISTS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION, AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW APPROACHES, INCREASED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
AND ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES,
AND IN SPITE OF PALTRY INSTABILITY (CAPE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND
50-100 J/KG), A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS ESMERALDA, NYE, AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. WHILE OVERALL QPF REMAINS LOW, UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH, ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS TO
PRECIPITATION RATE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. IN
THE MOUNTAINS, THE SNOW LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON BEGINS AROUND
6000-6500FT, AND WILL DROP TO AROUND 5000-5500FT BY SUNDAY. THUS,
MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND 7-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SIERRA CREST, AND LARGELY REMAINING AROUND 3-5 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE CORE OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE, A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE FORECAST.
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S AND 40S. THESE
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST, WITH 20S AND 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
MONDAY, HELPING TO MAINTAIN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AFTERWARDS, THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TUESDAY ONWARDS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL SEND HIGHS BACK INTO ABOVE
NORMAL TERRITORY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS INCLUDES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR LAS VEGAS AND
IN THE 90S FOR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHER THAN INCREASING
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWEST GUSTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS PEAKING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z. AFTER
SUNSET, WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT, ALTHOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS WILL END
TEMPORARILY BEFORE SUNRISE ONLY TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING, AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL IN THE VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 12KFT AGL. NORTHWEST OF THE VALLEY
ALONG THE BEATTY CORRIDOR, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...CONDITIONS AT THE LAS VEGAS AREA TAF SITES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DESCRIBED FOR HARRY REID ABOVE, EXCEPT A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS POSSIBLE AT VGT LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS AT KBIH WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VCSH IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. THESE SHOWERS COULD RESULT
IN ERRATIC GUST DIRECTIONS AT TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AT KDAG, WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST, WITH GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KTS. VCSH IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z THROUGH SUNSET. THE WEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL STILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVENING, FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
TODAY. AWAY FROM ANY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOP, FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH BASES GENERALLY REMAINING AOA 12KFT
AGL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...PHILLIPSON
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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