353
FXUS65 KVEF 271004
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
304 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AS WELL AS
REGION-WIDE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. BROAD RIDGING WILL GROW OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES, CALMER WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS. WATCHING
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEST MOISTURE (0.25 - 0.75" OF PWAT) COUPLED WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY (50 - 150 J/KG OF CAPE) WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN ESMERALDA,
NORTH-CENTRAL NYE, AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES AND BETWEEN 0.01
AND 0.05 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN INYO AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES
TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, BUT
WILL START OFF BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN 0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN GENERAL, IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS AS
THE LIGHT RAIN COMBINES WITH DIRT, OIL, AND GRIME ON THE ROADS.
WIND-WISE, AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY, EXPECT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOJAVE DESERT AND BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT. DCAPE WILL BE GREATEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG, SO GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. MONDAY AFTERNOON, POST-FRONTAL
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH STRONGEST SPEEDS IN
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH EACH
CLIMATE SITE OBSERVING HIGHS IN THE TOP 10 COOLEST FOR APRIL 27TH.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODEL CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIVERGE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, THE OVERALL FLOW SHOULD SHIFT
FROM NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY TO NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER,
WEAKER LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW DEEP THIS LOW MIGHT BE, WHICH WOULD BE ONE
DETERMINING FACTOR IN HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIP CHANCES MIGHT GET. THE
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK SOLUTION, WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE A FEW OUTLYING STRONGER SOLUTIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC ON THURSDAY, THIS LOW SHOULD GET TRAPPED OVER OUR
AREA IN A CONFIGURATION SIMILAR TO A REX BLOCK. IF THE LOW IS
INDEED WEAK, ITS ONLY EFFECTS ON OUR AREA COULD BE CLOUDS AND A
FEW DEGREES LESS WARMING THAN THE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD IMPLY, BUT
IF THE OUTLYING STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY BETTER, SHOWERY WEATHER
COULD COME INTO PLAY. THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES SHOULD
REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AND MOVE INLAND, KICKING
OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT, IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD CHANGE IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS COME TO PASS.
SATURDAY COULD BE THE WINDIEST DAY, ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD CHANGE IF
THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING TROUGH CHANGES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISH TO AROUND 8-10 KTS. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-
10 KTS WILL INCREASE MID-MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
IN THE VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 12KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONDITIONS AT THE LAS
VEGAS AREA TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DESCRIBED FOR HARRY
REID ABOVE, EXCEPT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT VGT FROM LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 10Z) INTO TOMORROW MORNING
(15Z). AT KBIH, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS AND FAVOR
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH 10Z BEFORE ENDING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS REMAINING 15 KNOTS OR LESS. AT KDAG,
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST, WITH GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS AFTER
18Z SUNDAY. IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. GUSTY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
FEW TO SCT CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH BASES GENERALLY REMAINING AOA
12KFT AGL INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...SOULAT
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...GORELOW
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