212
FXUS65 KVEF 271735
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1035 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AS WELL AS
REGION-WIDE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
A WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. BROAD RIDGING WILL GROW
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES, CALMER WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WATCHING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
THIS MORNING, THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, CLOUD COVER, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES
SLOWLY CHURNING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN, WHERE LOCATIONS FROM CENTRAL NYE COUNTY TO LINCOLN COUNTY
HAVE REPORTED ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO OVER A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. WITH
SNOW LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5000FT, LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH THESE WILL QUICKLY
COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY INCREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. REGARDLESS, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT, LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH, AT MOST.
SHOWERS ARE STILL PROGGED TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS
PROGRESSION, WITH UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES STICKING AROUND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TARGET TO
TOP OUT AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR MOST. GIVEN THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK, NO UPDATES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEST MOISTURE (0.25 - 0.75" OF PWAT) COUPLED WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY (50 - 150 J/KG OF CAPE) WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN ESMERALDA,
NORTH-CENTRAL NYE, AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES AND BETWEEN 0.01
AND 0.05 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN INYO AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES
TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, BUT
WILL START OFF BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN 0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN GENERAL, IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS AS
THE LIGHT RAIN COMBINES WITH DIRT, OIL, AND GRIME ON THE ROADS.
WIND-WISE, AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY, EXPECT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOJAVE DESERT AND BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT. DCAPE WILL BE GREATEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG, SO GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. MONDAY AFTERNOON, POST-FRONTAL
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH STRONGEST SPEEDS IN
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH EACH
CLIMATE SITE OBSERVING HIGHS IN THE TOP 10 COOLEST FOR APRIL 27TH.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODEL CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIVERGE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, THE OVERALL FLOW SHOULD SHIFT
FROM NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY TO NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER,
WEAKER LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW DEEP THIS LOW MIGHT BE, WHICH WOULD BE ONE
DETERMINING FACTOR IN HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIP CHANCES MIGHT GET. THE
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK SOLUTION, WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE A FEW OUTLYING STRONGER SOLUTIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC ON THURSDAY, THIS LOW SHOULD GET TRAPPED OVER OUR
AREA IN A CONFIGURATION SIMILAR TO A REX BLOCK. IF THE LOW IS
INDEED WEAK, ITS ONLY EFFECTS ON OUR AREA COULD BE CLOUDS AND A
FEW DEGREES LESS WARMING THAN THE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD IMPLY, BUT
IF THE OUTLYING STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY BETTER, SHOWERY WEATHER
COULD COME INTO PLAY. THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES SHOULD
REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AND MOVE INLAND, KICKING
OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT, IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD CHANGE IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS COME TO PASS.
SATURDAY COULD BE THE WINDIEST DAY, ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD CHANGE IF
THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING TROUGH CHANGES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS WHERE WINDS LULL THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 15-18Z, AND DIRECTION MAY BRIEFLY SWING
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS WHILE REMAINING QUITE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE, JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 10KFT AGL EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL EASE LATE TONIGHT AND MAY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING
MONDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BREEZY SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FOR MOST OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND COLORADO RIVER TAF SITES, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
KDAG WHERE GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER NORTH, SOME
MORNING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED NEAR KBIH WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE
6KFT AGL. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT, WITH NORTH WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...PHILLIPSON
SHORT TERM...SOULAT
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...GORELOW
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