340
FXUS65 KVEF 272152
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
252 PM PDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY AS A SYSTEM DEPARTS THE
AREA TO THE EAST. MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
AREAWIDE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MIDWEEK WITH
LITTLE FANFARE, AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE POTENT SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND
THAT LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COOL, WINDY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS, AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION CONTINUES SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ASCENT IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT,
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RULE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN TODAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000FT. SNOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. AMOUNTS RECEIVED HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
LIGHT, UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS
IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE UPWARDS OF TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED. WHILE INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY
LIMITED, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DOESN'T
REACH THE GROUND. AWAY FROM THIS ACTIVITY, WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN REBOUNDING AS THICKNESSES
INCREASE, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT
STILL AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. WARMING
WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A LOW
CHANCE (10 TO 20%) FOR WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER FOR MOST ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS ESMERALDA, NORTHEASTERN INYO, AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WHERE INTERMITTENT NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 25
TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FOLLOWING SUIT AND TRENDING UPWARD,
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODEL CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIVERGE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, THE OVERALL FLOW SHOULD SHIFT
FROM NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY TO NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER,
WEAKER LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW DEEP THIS LOW MIGHT BE, WHICH WOULD BE ONE
DETERMINING FACTOR IN HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIP CHANCES MIGHT GET. THE
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK SOLUTION, WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE A FEW OUTLYING STRONGER SOLUTIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC ON THURSDAY, THIS LOW SHOULD GET TRAPPED OVER OUR
AREA IN A CONFIGURATION SIMILAR TO A REX BLOCK. IF THE LOW IS
INDEED WEAK, ITS ONLY EFFECTS ON OUR AREA COULD BE CLOUDS AND A
FEW DEGREES LESS WARMING THAN THE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD IMPLY, BUT
IF THE OUTLYING STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY BETTER, SHOWERY WEATHER
COULD COME INTO PLAY. THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES SHOULD
REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AND MOVE INLAND, KICKING
OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT, IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD CHANGE IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS COME TO PASS.
SATURDAY COULD BE THE WINDIEST DAY, ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD CHANGE IF
THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING TROUGH CHANGES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 00Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. GUSTS WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD OCCUR
AROUND DAYBREAK. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z
AND 17Z, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF WITH THIS
SHIFT. ANY GUSTS THAT OCCUR SHOULD DECREASE IN FREQUENCY AS WE MOVE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH BASES REMAINING AOA
15KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONDITIONS AT THE LAS
VEGAS AREA TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED FOR HARRY
REID, EXCEPT THE SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY WILL BE EARLIER FOR
KVGT AND LATER FOR KHND. AT KBIH, WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTH
TO WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT, BUT GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING AT KDAG BEFORE DECREASING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-
WIDE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH BASES GENERALLY REMAINING AOA 10KFT AGL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...PHILLIPSON
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...PLANZ
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