026
FXUS65 KVEF 280422
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
922 PM PDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY AS A SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE EAST. MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
AREAWIDE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MIDWEEK WITH
LITTLE FANFARE, AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE POTENT SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND THAT
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOL,
WINDY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
WINDS HAD BEGUN TO SETTLE DOWN IN ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. CLOUDS OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT WERE
DISSIPATING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH
MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEARER THE DEPARTING LOW CENTER. THESE
TRENDS ARE IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST, SO NO UPDATE PLANNED
THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
252 PM PDT SUN APR 27 2025
SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS, AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION CONTINUES SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ASCENT IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT,
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RULE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN TODAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000FT. SNOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. AMOUNTS RECEIVED HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
LIGHT, UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS
IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE UPWARDS OF TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED. WHILE INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY
LIMITED, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DOESN'T
REACH THE GROUND. AWAY FROM THIS ACTIVITY, WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN REBOUNDING AS THICKNESSES
INCREASE, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT
STILL AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. WARMING
WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A LOW
CHANCE (10 TO 20%) FOR WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER FOR MOST ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS ESMERALDA, NORTHEASTERN INYO, AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WHERE INTERMITTENT NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 25
TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FOLLOWING SUIT AND TRENDING UPWARD,
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODEL CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIVERGE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, THE OVERALL FLOW SHOULD SHIFT
FROM NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY TO NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER,
WEAKER LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW DEEP THIS LOW MIGHT BE, WHICH WOULD BE ONE
DETERMINING FACTOR IN HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIP CHANCES MIGHT GET. THE
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK SOLUTION, WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE A FEW OUTLYING STRONGER SOLUTIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC ON THURSDAY, THIS LOW SHOULD GET TRAPPED OVER OUR
AREA IN A CONFIGURATION SIMILAR TO A REX BLOCK. IF THE LOW IS
INDEED WEAK, ITS ONLY EFFECTS ON OUR AREA COULD BE CLOUDS AND A
FEW DEGREES LESS WARMING THAN THE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD IMPLY, BUT
IF THE OUTLYING STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY BETTER, SHOWERY WEATHER
COULD COME INTO PLAY. THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES SHOULD
REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AND MOVE INLAND, KICKING
OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT, IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD CHANGE IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS COME TO PASS.
SATURDAY COULD BE THE WINDIEST DAY, ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD CHANGE IF
THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING TROUGH CHANGES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM ABOUT DAYBREAK THROUGH 16Z BEFORE NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS
MAY END UP SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 19Z AND REMAIN
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS ALONG WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 16 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 15KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONDITIONS AT THE LAS
VEGAS AREA TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED FOR HARRY
REID, EXCEPT THE SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY WILL BE EARLIER FOR
KVGT AND LATER FOR KHND. AT KBIH, WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTHERLY
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME BKN CIGS AT BIH THROUGH 16Z BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS
AT KDAG WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST
AROUND 8 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AT KIFP AND KEED
ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM...PHILLIPSON
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...GORELOW
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