408
FXUS65 KVEF 281724
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1024 AM PDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 15 ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK
AND GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS. A WEAK SYSTEM MID-TO-LATE WEEK
WILL RETURN LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BEFORE
THE REGION GEARS UP FOR A MORE POTENT SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL BRING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, A DROP IN TEMPERATURES, AND A
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
UPDATE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 HPA RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
REGION UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL, BREEZY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES ITS SLOW EXIT TO THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE, LINGERING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) FOR LIGHT
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN,
THOUGH A FEW MEMBERS OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL SUITE INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN INYO AND
CLARK COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL AID DEVELOPMENT. THUS, HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, IF SHOWERS OCCUR,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED IF ANY TANGIBLE
IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE BOARD, BUT STILL TOP OUT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION...201 AM PDT MON APR 28 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TUESDAY.
AS A STRONG LOW PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS OF INYO, ESMERALDA, NYE, LINCOLN, AND CLARK
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75" ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT, WE CAN EXPECT
LOW PRECIPITATION TOTALS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.15".
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS CAN EXPECT THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE, WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE, WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 100 AND 200 J/KG. ON THE
BACK END OF THE TROUGH, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA, AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES,
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTLY-TO-MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 15, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 6-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER ON TUESDAY,
PUTTING THE REGION RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE-APRIL.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODEL CLUSTERS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS
AND HAVE ALSO COME INTO EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE LOW WHICH HAS
PESTERED US THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST, AND THE
NEXT TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS WEAK TROUGH
GETS PINCHED OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW, EVOLVING INTO A CUTOFF LOW
NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, LEADING TO A (SHORT-LIVED)
PATTERN SIMILAR TO A REX BLOCK. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF OUR CWA. WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE BREEZY WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE A
LITTLE MORE WEDNESDAY AND THEN LEVEL OUT THURSDAY. FRIDAY, THE
ENTIRE PATTERN SHIFTS A LITTLE BIT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FULL-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. PRECIP
CHANCES IN OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL, AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE INCREASED
WINDS AND MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING,
MAKING FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. SATURDAY, THE PACIFIC
TROUGH SHOULD COME ASHORE, WITH STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK CONFINED TO THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES OUR AREA SUNDAY, PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER SOUTH, POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40.
DIRECTLY UNDER THE TROUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE, LEAVING
BREEZY CONDITIONS INSTEAD OF WINDY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CRASH,
WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA. MOUNT CHARLESTON COULD EVEN SEE LIGHT SNOW.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS
MAY END UP SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 19Z AND REMAIN
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS ALONG WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 16 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS TRANSITION
COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY AND ARRIVE BY 18Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH BASES REMAINING AOA
12KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONDITIONS AT THE LAS
VEGAS AREA TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED FOR HARRY
REID, EXCEPT THE SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY WILL BE EARLIER FOR
KVGT AND LATER FOR KHND. AT KBIH, WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTHERLY
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME BKN CIGS AT BIH THROUGH 16Z BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS
AT KDAG WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AND GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS AT KIFP AND KEED ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...PHILLIPSON
SHORT TERM...SOULAT
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...OUTLER
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