244
FXUS65 KVEF 282137
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
237 PM PDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF I-15. A WARMING TREND WILL
CARRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND INYO COUNTY MOUNTAINS, BUT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WINDY
TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
AS THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CHILLY AND WINDY WEEKEND WEATHER
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON, BANDS OF CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT, THOUGH QPF REMAINS VERY LIGHT. FAVORED
AREAS FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN,
WHERE TOPOGRAPHY WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID, IMPACTS WILL
BE FEW IF ANY, WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS. THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TARGET TO
TOP OUT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST, WITH
INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE WARMING TREND THAT BEGAN TODAY WILL CARRY INTO TUESDAY (AND
BEYOND) AS RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. LESS WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
70S AND 80S ELSEWHERE, WITH 90S RETURNING ACROSS DEATH VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARMING TREND
WILL ALSO BE REFLECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE
50S AND 60S FOR MOST, SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODEL CLUSTERS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS
AND HAVE ALSO COME INTO EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE LOW WHICH HAS
PESTERED US THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST, AND THE
NEXT TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS WEAK TROUGH
GETS PINCHED OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW, EVOLVING INTO A CUTOFF LOW
NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, LEADING TO A (SHORT-LIVED)
PATTERN SIMILAR TO A REX BLOCK. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF OUR CWA. WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE BREEZY WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE A
LITTLE MORE WEDNESDAY AND THEN LEVEL OUT THURSDAY. FRIDAY, THE
ENTIRE PATTERN SHIFTS A LITTLE BIT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FULL-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. PRECIP
CHANCES IN OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL, AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE INCREASED
WINDS AND MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING,
MAKING FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. SATURDAY, THE PACIFIC
TROUGH SHOULD COME ASHORE, WITH STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK CONFINED TO THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES OUR AREA SUNDAY, PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER SOUTH, POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40.
DIRECTLY UNDER THE TROUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE, LEAVING
BREEZY CONDITIONS INSTEAD OF WINDY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CRASH,
WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA. MOUNT CHARLESTON COULD EVEN SEE LIGHT SNOW.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 19Z AND REMAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. WINDS DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
EVENING, THEN TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
BASES REMAINING AOA 12KFT AGL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGH
TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF LAS VEGAS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THESE SHOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS IN THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY, THEN
FOLLOW THE USUAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN TONIGHT. AT KBIH, WINDS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF
OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THESE SHOULD DECREASE
IN THE EVENING. WINDS AT KDAG WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KTS AT KIFP AND KEED ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGH
TERRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE VICINITY OF ANY
TERMINAL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...PHILLIPSON
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...MELTZER
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