313
FXUS65 KVEF 291154
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
500 AM PDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT-TO-BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. A WEAK SYSTEM MID-TO-
LATE WEEK WILL RETURN LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN BEFORE THE REGION GEARS UP FOR A MORE POTENT SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, A DROP IN TEMPERATURES,
AND A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL FINALLY PUSH EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO NEAR-NORMAL TODAY BEFORE CLIMBING TO ABOVE-NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND AN EXITING RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SIT BENEATH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS IS COMMON WITH THIS
PATTERN, A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER, RETURN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, MODERATELY INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES IN THE MOJAVE DESERT, AND WILL TEMPER THE
RAPID INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION.
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST IN NORTHERN INYO, NORTHERN
ESMERALDA, NORTHERN NYE, AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75". FORECAST CAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST
(100-250 J/KG) IN NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES, WHERE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THESE AREAS, QPF IS
ALSO HIGHEST, WITH BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30" POSSIBLE (HIGHER END OF
THAT RANGE WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOCATIONS BENEATH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT). ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN, QPF WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.15". WITH
SNOW LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 9500 FT, SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE PEAKS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
LIKELY.
OTHERWISE, ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH, BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AGAIN, MODEL CLUSTERS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S SOLUTIONS AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER, WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE
PAST TWO DAYS, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHICH COMES DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM GETTING PINCHED
OFF AND RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREA BY
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, FORMING NOT-QUITE-A-REX-BLOCK. MODELS STILL AGREE THAT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER AND CONFINED TO THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT IN ANY AREAS WHICH GET SHOWERS BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. ON FRIDAY, THERE IS STILL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS THE BIG TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
WHICH WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN SMALL AND CONFINED TO THE SIERRA NEVADA AND SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. SATURDAY, THE BIG TROUGH SHOULD REACH OR NEARLY REACH THE
WEST COAST, KICKING UP STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE. WIND
HEADLINES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR
CWA, AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COME DOWN, MORE SO IN THE
WESTERN ZONES THAN THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH ROLLS INLAND SUNDAY, EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW AND REACHING OUR AREA. WINDS WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE,
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REACH THEIR MAX, WITH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES AND SLIGHT CHANCES REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS KINGMAN. ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE CRASH IN
TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES AREAWIDE FROM
SATURDAY, GIVING A TOTAL CHANGE OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY. SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMA...OR COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES...
FOR THE DATE WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. FOR MONDAY, THERE IS SOME
QUESTION WHETHER THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY OR STALL OVER OUR
AREA. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES RECOVER AND HOW
MUCH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, PICKING UP IN
STRENGTH SLIGHTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY TO MORE NORTHEAST
DIRECTIONS BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING 10 KNOTS DECREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER 20Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ALLEY WHERE NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...SOULAT
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...OUTLER
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