303
FXUS65 KVEF 131721
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1020 AM PDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY, AND IT WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY BEFORE DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, CHANCES OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
MOUNTAIN WAVES OFF OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SHIFTED
EASTWARD THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WERE 58-61 MPH IN HENDERSON AS
WELL AS 50-55 MPH IN NORTH LAS VEGAS. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 10
TO 12 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
409 AM PDT TUE MAY 13 2025/
SHORT TERM
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED PRE-FRONTAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 15 AND CONTINUING TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST. FARTHER NORTHWEST, POST-FRONTAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE NEARING THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA. SURFACE OBS
SHOWED THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS INYO, NYE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES,
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT. MOUNTAIN WAVES WERE PERSISTING FROM THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS DOWN TO MERCURY-DESERT ROCK, WHERE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING SINCE MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CONTINUE AS LONG AS
THE FRONT REMAINS TO THEIR NORTH, SO EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 4 AM. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE CWA WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, AND COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SIERRA CREST
ACROSS TO LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. TODAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MAY.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE BREEZY, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. IN ITS WAKE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGIN A GRADUAL
REBOUND, WARMING TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. ALOFT,
THE REGION WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERING THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO ALLOWS FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, THE NEXT OF WHICH STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSES HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN, ALL
INDICATING A DEEPER TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A RETURN OF WINDY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY, WINDS WOULD
BEGIN INCREASING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AS ALWAYS,
THE DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT GIVEN
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT
WEEKEND MAY WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH GUSTS 15-
30 KNOTS. THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY (20%) OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NW WINDS THRU 19Z, BUT THE GOING EXPECTATION IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY. TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN A SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST, THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN (07Z -
11Z). VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT MOVING
IN LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY,
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR VGT WILL TRANSISTION BACK TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY 21Z. OTHERWISE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT, NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE VALLEY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AT BIH, NORTHERLY
WINDS PERSIST WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8KFT DURING THIS
TIME. STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED AT DAG WITH WESTERLY GUSTS LARGELY
IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE. FINALLY, BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BUT
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...SOULAT
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...WOODS
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