764
FXUS65 KVEF 140433
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
932 PM PDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY, LEAVING
BEHIND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT SYSTEM
ENTERS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
EARLY THIS EVENING, A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH
IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 DEGREES, CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW, WITH VIRGA AND GUSTY WINDS
THE MORE LIKELY RESULT. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA, WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT, WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY,
WITH WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY - GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-15 - STILL GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ACROSS
THE BOARD, GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S
TO 60S ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR EDITS TO POPS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, NO OTHER UPDATES ARE
WARRANTED.
PREV DISCUSSION...459 PM PDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A POTENT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AND A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AN INCREASE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THOUGH, WITH
PWATS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.40", QPF IS MEAGER. GREATEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
AND MOUNTAINS ACROSS LINCOLN AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES) AS WELL AS
UNDERNEATH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEK AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT, SKIES CLEAR, AND WINDS
WANE.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING
THE APPROACH OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DETAILS REGARDING
EXACT LOCATION, TRAJECTORY, TIMING, AND DEPTH CONTINUE TO BE WORKED
OUT, BUT WHAT WE KNOW FOR NOW IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN, SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS
THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KTS. AFTER 07Z,
LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 09Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 10-12KFT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY,
WINDS AT VGT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WESTERLY THIS EVENING, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 07Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS AFTER 15Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AT HND WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 10Z WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT BIH, NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED
AT DAG WITH WESTERLY GUSTS LARGELY IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE, BUT WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20-25 KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE AFTERNOON. FINALLY, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
10 KTS OR LESS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...PHILLIPSON
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...GORELOW
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