096
FXUS65 KVEF 142149
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
249 PM PDT WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
REMAINER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
DROPS INTO THE REGION, RETURNING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CALMER WEATHER EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING, ELEVATED NORTH
WINDS BELOW BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH. GUST SPEEDS HAVE SINCE SUBSIDED,
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH PERSISTING ACROSS
THE REGION - GREATER SPEEDS IN NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED
CORRIDORS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES INCREASING
BACK TOWARD NEAR-NORMAL BY FRIDAY UNDERNEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A POTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS, A RETURN
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND... ONCE AGAIN.
DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE HASH OUT THE EXACT INTENSITY
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WHAT WE KNOW IS THAT PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL (GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.50 AND
0.75 INCHES), WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN RATES
BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL
ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH OCCASIONAL MODEL RUNS BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WELL INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS HAVE THIS TROUGH ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A NEGATIVE
TILT, WHICH WILL INCREASE THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR,
MEANING SEVERE-LEVEL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL, THE NBM IS SLOWLY TRENDING GUSTIER WITH
BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS. THE LATEST RUN HAS 50-70
PERCENT CHANCES OF WEST-SOUTHWEST GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT (ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR) ON SATURDAY AND
30-50 PERCENT CHANCES OF NORTHWEST GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. THE LREF HAS GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH TIMES/LOCATIONS... 60-90 PERCENT AND 40-70
PERCENT, RESPECTIVELY.
BEHIND THE TROUGH, RIDGING SETS UP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
THAT WILL RESULT IN LAS VEGAS CHANCES FOR 90 DEGREES RAPIDLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AND "MODERATE" HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 ON A
SCALE FROM 0 TO 4) RETURNING TO THE LOW VALLEYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 03-04Z BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DECREASING. A FEW GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN FOLLOW A MORE DIURNAL
PATTERN INTO THURSDAY, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST BY 16Z TO 18Z.
SCATTERED HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...
THE FLOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN PATTERN. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS UNDER 10-15 KNOTS
MOST TERMINALS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KDAG, WHERE A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A WESTERLY
PUSH. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...AUSTIN
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