729
FXUS65 KVEF 151617
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
917 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, AND
A DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CALMER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE ANTI-CYCLONIC SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SAT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, WHICH RESULTED IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR LOCAL WEATHER TODAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
5-8 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
-NICKERSON-
SHORT TERM
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MIDNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF INYO, ESMERALDA, NYE, AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. A BAND OF CIRRUS WAS MOVING EAST OVER SOUTHERN
INYO AND NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. SURFACE OBS SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR MID- MAY NORMALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WELL AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A POTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS, A RETURN
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN.
DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE HASH OUT THE EXACT INTENSITY
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WHAT WE KNOW IS THAT PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL (GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.50 AND
0.75 INCHES), WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN RATES
BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL
ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH OCCASIONAL MODEL RUNS BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WELL INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS HAVE THIS TROUGH ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A NEGATIVE
TILT, WHICH WILL INCREASE THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR,
MEANING SEVERE-LEVEL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE AND THE REMAINDER OF LINCOLN COUNTY SUNDAY.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL, THE NBM IS SLOWLY TRENDING GUSTIER WITH
BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS. THE LATEST RUN HAS 50-70
PERCENT CHANCES OF WEST-SOUTHWEST GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT (ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR) ON SATURDAY AND
30-50 PERCENT CHANCES OF NORTHWEST GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. THE LREF HAS GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH TIMES/LOCATIONS... 60-90 PERCENT AND 40-70
PERCENT, RESPECTIVELY.
BEHIND THE TROUGH, RIDGING SETS UP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
THAT WILL RESULT IN LAS VEGAS CHANCES FOR 90 DEGREES RAPIDLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AND "MODERATE" HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 ON A
SCALE FROM 0 TO 4) RETURNING TO THE LOW VALLEYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY AND SWING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THESE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FEW
TO SCT CLOUDS WILL FILTER THROUGH THE AREA WITH BASES AOA 15KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND SWING TO A MORE WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. HND AND EED WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS WESTERLY-TO-
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT WHILE IFP AND VGT SHIFT TO MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS TONIGHT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AT DAG. THESE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHEN WINDS WILL
PICK UP AND SWING BACK TO THE WEST. BIH WILL FAVOR A WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH 5 TO 10 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
WITH FEW TO BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 12 KFT FILTERING THROUGH THE
AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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