217
FXUS65 KVEF 151827
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1127 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, AND
A DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CALMER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE ANTI-CYCLONIC SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SAT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, WHICH RESULTED IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR LOCAL WEATHER TODAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
5-8 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
-NICKERSON-
SHORT TERM
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MIDNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF INYO, ESMERALDA, NYE, AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. A BAND OF CIRRUS WAS MOVING EAST OVER SOUTHERN
INYO AND NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. SURFACE OBS SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR MID- MAY NORMALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WELL AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A POTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS, A RETURN
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN.
DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE HASH OUT THE EXACT INTENSITY
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WHAT WE KNOW IS THAT PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL (GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.50 AND
0.75 INCHES), WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN RATES
BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL
ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH OCCASIONAL MODEL RUNS BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WELL INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS HAVE THIS TROUGH ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A NEGATIVE
TILT, WHICH WILL INCREASE THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR,
MEANING SEVERE-LEVEL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE AND THE REMAINDER OF LINCOLN COUNTY SUNDAY.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL, THE NBM IS SLOWLY TRENDING GUSTIER WITH
BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS. THE LATEST RUN HAS 50-70
PERCENT CHANCES OF WEST-SOUTHWEST GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT (ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR) ON SATURDAY AND
30-50 PERCENT CHANCES OF NORTHWEST GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. THE LREF HAS GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH TIMES/LOCATIONS... 60-90 PERCENT AND 40-70
PERCENT, RESPECTIVELY.
BEHIND THE TROUGH, RIDGING SETS UP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
THAT WILL RESULT IN LAS VEGAS CHANCES FOR 90 DEGREES RAPIDLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AND "MODERATE" HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 ON A
SCALE FROM 0 TO 4) RETURNING TO THE LOW VALLEYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND BELOW 10KT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHEAST IN A TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN. WINDS PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 20KT. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS
WITH BASES AOA 15KFT WILL COME THROUGH AT TIMES ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.
MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS BELOW 10KT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT DAG WHERE WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20KT CAN BE EXPECTED. TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS CAN
BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND TO 20KT WILL PICK UP AT
THE COLORADO RIVER TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SHIELD OF FEW-
SCT CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...BERC
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