168
FXUS65 KVEF 160136
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
636 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, AND
A DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CALMER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH
MEANS LOWS IN THE MID 60S FOR LAS VEGAS. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. ON
FRIDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT
HAVE SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH, THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AN UPTICK IN WINDS IS POSSIBLE AS THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH, BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MOJAVE DESERT WIND-
PRONE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY, WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.
A STRONGER, MORE IMPACTFUL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS WIDESPREAD
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SET UP ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM. A STRENGTHENING JET
ALSO SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
INTO ARIZONA. PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 40 MPH GUSTS ARE OVER 50%
THROUGH THIS REGION, AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW 40-50MPH GUSTS
ON SATURDAY. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR WIND IMPACTS ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME LOCATIONS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND WIND
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN DEATH VALLEY AND THE SIERRA INTO THE OWENS
VALLEY, BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIDESPREAD WIND
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME IN THOSE AREAS. A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AROUND BARSTOW, CA AS WELL AS DESERT ROCK, NV SHOW 55 MPH+
WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A HIGH
WIND WATCH/WARNING NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN NOW FOCUS ON ADJUSTING
HEADLINES AND WIND IMPACT LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE HI-RES MODEL DOMAIN
AND CHANGES IN PROBABILITIES LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTY WIND AND
WIND IMPACTS LINGERING THE LONGEST THROUGH THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND IMPACTS WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE, AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF INYO COUNTY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OR THE OWENS VALLEY, BUT HELD OFF AS CONFIDENCE
WAS LOWER AND IT WAS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE NORTH WIND IMPACTS
WOULD BE ON SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE PWATS WILL INCREASE TO
125 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL (GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75
INCHES), WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN RATES BENEATH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL IS
ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES SATURDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND THE REMAINDER OF
LINCOLN COUNTY SUNDAY. FURTHER WEST, THE FORECAST IS TRENDING DRIER
AS MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT TOO QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE SIERRA CREST, MOST OF THE
CALIFORNIA ZONES SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE TROUGH, RIDGING SETS UP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
THAT WILL RESULT IN LAS VEGAS CHANCES FOR 90 DEGREES RAPIDLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AND "MODERATE" HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 ON A
SCALE FROM 0 TO 4) RETURNING TO THE LOW VALLEYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 18Z. ONCE THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST OCCURS
TOMORROW, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THAT DIRECTION THROUGH
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
BASES REMAINING AOA 15KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE LAS VEGAS AREA TAF
SITES WILL SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED ABOVE FOR HARRY
REID. ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT KDAG, AREA TAF SITES WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS OF
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. KDAG WILL SEE THE TYPICAL
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTS BECOMING COMMON BY
LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 15KFT AGL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...MELTZER
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...PLANZ
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