874
FXUS65 KVEF 160909
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
209 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SPRINKLES IN THE OWENS
VALLEY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND SHOWER
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE GREAT BASIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE NEXT
WEEK WITH WARM CONDITIONS RESUMING.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATER TODAY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO SPARK
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PERHAPS STRETCHING INTO THE FISH LAKE VALLEY REGION IN ESMERALDA
COUNTY AS WELL. OTHERWISE, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-
MAY.
LARGER CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON SATURDAY AS A DEEPER
TROUGH DIPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL WORK TO
TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH SPREADING FROM THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO TAKE
CONSIDERATION FOR WIND PRODUCTS ACROSS INYO COUNTY AND
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WITH BOTH PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY AND
POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH LOOK TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HELD OFF ON AN EXPANSION AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW STRONG THE POST FRONTAL WIND WILL BE
AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WITH
CHANCES PRIMARILY FAVORED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN ZONES. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS AND SHIFTED TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH REMAINING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, RESULTING IN
ONLY LOW SHOWER CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS, AS WELL AS A
LESS DRAMATIC COOLING FOR SUNDAY. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE MAY DROP
SOUTH BEHIND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, WHICH
COULD ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND BRING ABOUT A
BRIEF SHOT AT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT IN TOTAL
AGREEMENT ON THIS POSSIBILITY SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. AS
THIS HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES. LAS
VEGAS HAS A 63 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF REACHING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE
DAY ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2)
HEATRISK ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS, A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS
ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING
OR HYDRATION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR (LEVEL 3)
HEATRISK ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER, WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING OR HYDRATION. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE, DRY CONDITIONS AND NON-IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
UPDATE
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH
MEANS LOWS IN THE MID 60S FOR LAS VEGAS. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IS STILL POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR THIS HAS DIMINISHED, AND WINDS MAY
STAY MORE VARIABLE OR WESTERLY. REGARDLESS OF THE DIRECTION, SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. A SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND ONCE THIS SHIFT OCCURS,
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THAT DIRECTION THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 15KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE LAS VEGAS AREA TAF
SITES WILL SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED ABOVE FOR HARRY
REID, EXCEPT WINDS AT KHND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT KDAG, AREA TAF SITES
WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. KDAG
WILL SEE THE TYPICAL GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
BEFORE DECREASING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS
WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, WITH 20 TO 25
KNOTS GUSTS BECOMING COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 12KFT AGL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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