459
FXUS65 KVEF 161725
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1025 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SPRINKLES IN THE OWENS
VALLEY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND SHOWER
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE GREAT BASIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE NEXT
WEEK WITH WARM CONDITIONS RESUMING.
UPDATE
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING.
WITH SOME MOISTURE NOTED ABOVE 600MB ON THE RENO, NV AND LAS VEGAS
12Z SOUNDINGS, MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP OF THIS
FEATURE. FURTHER SOUTH IN CLARK, SAN BERNARDINO, AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES, IT REMAINED MOSTLY SUNNY.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED
CLOUDS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH. HOWEVER, HREF SHOWS LOW-END
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE SIERRA AND INCREASING 700MB UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SIERRA CREST IN THE TERRAIN OF NYE AND
ESMERALDA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPED. MOST LIKELY
THOUGH, IT WILL BE DRY TODAY. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER GUSTS WILL
REMAIN UN-IMPACTFUL WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS TODAY EXPECTED AROUND
BARSTOW, CA WHERE GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
-NICKERSON-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
427 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATER TODAY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO SPARK
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PERHAPS STRETCHING INTO THE FISH LAKE VALLEY REGION IN ESMERALDA
COUNTY AS WELL. OTHERWISE, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-
MAY.
LARGER CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON SATURDAY AS A DEEPER
TROUGH DIPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL WORK TO
TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH SPREADING FROM THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO TAKE
CONSIDERATION FOR WIND PRODUCTS ACROSS INYO COUNTY AND
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WITH BOTH PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY AND
POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH LOOK TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HELD OFF ON AN EXPANSION AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW STRONG THE POST FRONTAL WIND WILL BE
AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WITH
CHANCES PRIMARILY FAVORED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN ZONES. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS AND SHIFTED TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH REMAINING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, RESULTING IN
ONLY LOW SHOWER CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS, AS WELL AS A
LESS DRAMATIC COOLING FOR SUNDAY. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE MAY DROP
SOUTH BEHIND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, WHICH
COULD ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND BRING ABOUT A
BRIEF SHOT AT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT IN TOTAL
AGREEMENT ON THIS POSSIBILITY SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. AS
THIS HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES. LAS
VEGAS HAS A 63 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF REACHING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE
DAY ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2)
HEATRISK ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS, A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS
ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING
OR HYDRATION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR (LEVEL 3)
HEATRISK ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER, WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING OR HYDRATION. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE, DRY CONDITIONS AND NON-IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
UPDATE
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH
MEANS LOWS IN THE MID 60S FOR LAS VEGAS. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS.
A BRIEF PERIOD (1 HOUR OR LESS) OF SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
IS POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP, BUT THE DOMINANT
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 180-230. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD CEASE AND SPEEDS WEAKEN. STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AS GUSTS REACH 30-40 KNOTS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 15KFT MOVE IN TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE. AS THE
SUN SET, WINDS WILL WEAKEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT DAG WHERE THEY WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS FORECAST
TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...WOODS
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