612
FXUS65 KVEF 170845
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
145 AM PDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES HANGING ON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY.
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND
WITH A BELT OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FORMING FROM THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT NEAR DAGGETT, EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THIS REMAINS
WELL COVERED BY THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR
AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BARSTOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZES. FURTHER WEST, HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY INSISTENT ON STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, DESPITE A SOMEWHAT
SUBOPTIMAL FLOW PATTERN LACKING A STRONG CROSS-BARRIER COMPONENT
OF THE FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN MODEL SUPPORT, WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED THE SIERRA/OWENS VALLEY/WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE WIND
ADVISORY AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, A BELT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE FROM WEST TO
EAST, AND EXIT OUR REGION LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
MAY FORM AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS, CHANCES ARE GREATEST ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND
REMAIN COOL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT REINFORCING
COOL TEMPS AND NORTHERLY BREEZES.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 100
DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY IS NOW 75 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2) HEATRISK ACROSS THE
DESERT VALLEYS, A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS ANYONE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR (LEVEL 3) HEATRISK ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER, WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR
HYDRATION. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN NON-IMPACTFUL WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING
BELOW 8 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID-MORNING, WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING
THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BASES REMAINING AOA
12KFT AGL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONDITIONS AT THE LAS
VEGAS AREA TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED ABOVE FOR
HARRY REID. WINDS AT KBIH WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AFTER
21Z. ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING KDAG, WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 12KFT AGL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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