919
FXUS65 KVEF 171728
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1028 AM PDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES HANGING ON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
SATELITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A SHIELD OF
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER DEVELOPED AND BLANKETED THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NEVADA WHICH IS WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WAS
SITUATED. FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, IT REMAINED
DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO
RESPOND TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
REPORTED THIS MORNING.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND DIG INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THE REGION. DID NOT NEED SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN AND MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT WITH WIND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND IMPACTS TODAY. GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH WILL SET UP THROUGH THE TYPICAL GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BELT
THROUGH SAN BERNARDINO, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND WESTERN ARIZONA. WEAK
DOWNSLOPING WILL ALSO BRING 40 MPH+ GUSTS AND STRONG CROSSWINDS TO
THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND THE OWENS VALLEY. AN INCREASE IN
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 58 MPH IS NOTED ON HREF DESI AFTER 3 PM
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF OLANCHA ON HIGHWAY 395 AS WELL AS AROUND
INDEPENDENCE, AND METEOGRAMS DO SHOW A FEW MEMBERS OVER 60 MPH. NBM
IS MUCH LOWER. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 60MPH+ DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT
THAT OCCURED LAST WEEK IN THE OWENS VALLEY, THIS SET UP IS MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE. HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OWENS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
DRIVERS ON HIGHWAY 395 SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG CROSSWINDS THIS
AFTERNOON EITHER WAY AS WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 MPH.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS IMPACTFUL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
ESMERALDA COUNTY EARLY, THEN SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WEAK INSTABILITY
AND LOW END DCAPE DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CLARK COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY BUT WITH NO INSTABILITY- THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED AND THIS CORRELATES WITH HREF AND HRRR LIGHTNING MODELS
WHICH SHOW NO LIGHTNING THIS FAR SOUTH. IF SHOWERS WERE TO IMPACT
THE LAS VEGAS AREA, IT WOULD BE BETWEEN 5PM AND 11PM AND WHILE RAIN
WOULD BE LIGHT, SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. AGAIN, ITS A LOW RISK FOR RAIN AND ANY ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS THAT FAR SOUTH, BUT A FEW HI-RES MODELS DO SHOW SHOWERS IN
THE AREA AND WITH 0.50IN PWATS AND STRONG FORCING WITH THE TROUGH,
IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
DRY, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
-NICKERSON-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
1022 AM PDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY.
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND
WITH A BELT OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FORMING FROM THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT NEAR DAGGETT, EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THIS REMAINS
WELL COVERED BY THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR
AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BARSTOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZES. FURTHER WEST, HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY INSISTENT ON STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, DESPITE A SOMEWHAT
SUBOPTIMAL FLOW PATTERN LACKING A STRONG CROSS-BARRIER COMPONENT
OF THE FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN MODEL SUPPORT, WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED THE SIERRA/OWENS VALLEY/WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE WIND
ADVISORY AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, A BELT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE FROM WEST TO
EAST, AND EXIT OUR REGION LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
MAY FORM AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS, CHANCES ARE GREATEST ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND
REMAIN COOL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT REINFORCING
COOL TEMPS AND NORTHERLY BREEZES.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 100
DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY IS NOW 75 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2) HEATRISK ACROSS THE
DESERT VALLEYS, A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS ANYONE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR (LEVEL 3) HEATRISK ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER, WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR
HYDRATION. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN NON-IMPACTFUL WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS 30-40
KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNTIL THEY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WIND SHIFT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND
WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE STRENGTH/COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH OF THE VALLEY. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NORTHWESTERLIES IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z TONIGHT, BUT IF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION
IS VERY WEAK/SPARSE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SHIFT HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SUNRISE TOMORROW (20% CHANCE). CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY ARE RATHER LOW AT ~15%. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS
BACK TO THE WEST ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WINDS SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING BIH
WHERE WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
25-40 KNOT RANGE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OUT AT DAG. AFTER SUNSET,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, A SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z, THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH OR PERSIST AT HND. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...WOODS
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page