757
FXUS65 KVEF 172124
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
224 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES HANGING ON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WIND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE
OVER AS THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BRING ISOLATED WIND IMPACTS TO ESMERALDA, NYE,
AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, BUT THE HIGHEST WINDS AND PROBABILITIES FOR
GUST OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD NORTH
TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH LIKELY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ON MONDAY, A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY BECOME LESS ROBUST WITH EACH
MODEL RUN AND NOW ONLY SKIRTS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA, AND THUS THE WIND FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND
LOWER ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS ON MONDAY WILL
BE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING DOWN THE
TERRAIN, MAINLY IN THE MORNING. PROBABILITIES FOR 40 MPH GUSTS ARE
HIGHEST AROUND LAUGHLIN, WITH 50%-70% PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS ON THE LAKES ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL
NOT BE IMPACTFUL WITH GUSTS 15-25 MPH CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY AND RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH NORTH WINDS, IT MAY FEEL A BIT COOLER
AS WELL.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 100
DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY IS NOW 75 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2) HEATRISK ACROSS THE
DESERT VALLEYS, A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS ANYONE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR (LEVEL 3) HEATRISK ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER, WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR
HYDRATION. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN NON-IMPACTFUL WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS 30-40
KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNTIL THEY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WIND SHIFT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND
WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE STRENGTH/COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH OF THE VALLEY. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NORTHWESTERLIES IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z TONIGHT, BUT IF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION
IS VERY WEAK/SPARSE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SHIFT HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SUNRISE TOMORROW (20% CHANCE). CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY ARE RATHER LOW AT ~15%. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS
BACK TO THE WEST ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WINDS SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING BIH
WHERE WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
25-40 KNOT RANGE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OUT AT DAG. AFTER SUNSET,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, A SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z, THOUGH THE WIND SHIFT MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH OR PERSIST AT HND. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...WOODS
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
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