852
FXUS65 KVEF 181719
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1019 AM PDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-MAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS RESUME WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY ONWARD.
UPDATE
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS
LIMITED TO EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AND
CONTINUING TO ERODE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FLAT CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS FARTHER WEST LATER IN THE MORNING AS
TEMPS WARM UP. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. ALL OF THESE TRENDS ARE IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST, SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
451 AM PDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH WHICH BROAD WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS, DUST,
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY IS NOW EXISTING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ENROUTE TO THE HIGH PLAINS. OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN IN A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND MONDAY,
WITH ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF OUR EXITING TROUGH WILL
STIR UP NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STARTING ON TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS ON
THURSDAY SITS AT 75 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2) HEATRISK ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS, A
LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR (LEVEL 3) HEATRISK ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
AS WELL AS DEATH VALLEY, WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE
COOLING OR HYDRATION. KNOW WHERE TO FIND THE NEAREST COOL LOCATION
AND BRING PLENTY OF WATER IF PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WIND AND OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS IT
DRAWS CLOSER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO AROUND 11 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT, MANY
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE SHIFTS BETWEEN WESTERLY
AND NORTHERLY, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS AND LULLS. VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THOSE DETAILS, SO KEPT THE NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 11 KNOTS AS A COMPROMISE AMONG THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. WINDS
SHOULD VEER TO NORTHERLY BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FLOP OVER TO NORTHEASTERLY, WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE, BUT
NOT THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BE IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT. FOR MONDAY, THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS WILL BE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS
OF MOHAVE COUNTY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...MORGAN
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