439
FXUS65 KVEF 181931
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1231 PM PDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MIDDAY SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN ARC FROM TONOPAH
TO PAHRUMP TO LAKE HAVASU CITY. AREA RADARS SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN UTAH MOVING SOUTH TOWARD FAR NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY. SURFACE OBS SHOWED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 15 TO
30 MPH, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WAS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE, WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STAY GUSTY FOR ONE
MORE DAY, ALTHOUGH LESS SO THAN TODAY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. CONSIDERED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THERE, BUT IT APPEARS
THAT IF CRITERIA ARE REACHED AT ALL, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE ISOLATED
TO THE LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY/DAVIS DAM AREA AND LAST FOR A SHORT
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN FROM THE WEST, WITH MORE TO COME IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STARTING ON TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS ON
THURSDAY SITS AT 75 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2) HEATRISK ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS, A
LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR (LEVEL 3) HEATRISK ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
AS WELL AS DEATH VALLEY, WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE
COOLING OR HYDRATION. KNOW WHERE TO FIND THE NEAREST COOL LOCATION
AND BRING PLENTY OF WATER IF PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WIND AND OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS IT
DRAWS CLOSER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO AROUND 11 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT, MANY
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE SHIFTS BETWEEN WESTERLY
AND NORTHERLY, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS AND LULLS. VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THOSE DETAILS, SO KEPT THE NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 11 KNOTS AS A COMPROMISE AMONG THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. WINDS
SHOULD VEER TO NORTHERLY BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FLOP OVER TO NORTHEASTERLY, WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE, BUT
NOT THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BE IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT. FOR MONDAY, THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS WILL BE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS
OF MOHAVE COUNTY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...MORGAN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page