568
FXUS65 KVEF 190204 RRA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
705 PM PDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
UPDATE
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WERE REPORTED TODAY, WITH WINDS
GENERALLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND IN
DECREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD END AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHER THAN THE WINDS, IT WAS DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST UTAH WHERE THE
TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED AND A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DID BRUSH
FAR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY BUT DID NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH RAIN OR
IMPACTS-WISE. MOST LIKELY- IT WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. A FEW HI=-RES
MODELS DO TRY TO DEVELOP VERY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS IN NYE AND
LINCOLN COUNTY AT TIMES TONIGHT, BUT THE RISK OF THIS IS VERY LOW
WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. IF THESE
SHOWERS DID DEVELOP, LITTLE TO NO RAIN WOULD REACH THE GROUND AND NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT SHOULD FEATURE CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS THINGS
REMAIN LOW IMPACT AND ON TRACK.
-NICKERSON-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
415 PM PDT SUN MAY 18 2025.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MIDDAY SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN ARC FROM TONOPAH
TO PAHRUMP TO LAKE HAVASU CITY. AREA RADARS SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN UTAH MOVING SOUTH TOWARD FAR NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY. SURFACE OBS SHOWED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 15 TO
30 MPH, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WAS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE, WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STAY GUSTY FOR ONE
MORE DAY, ALTHOUGH LESS SO THAN TODAY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. CONSIDERED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THERE, BUT IT APPEARS
THAT IF CRITERIA ARE REACHED AT ALL, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE ISOLATED
TO THE LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY/DAVIS DAM AREA AND LAST FOR A SHORT
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN FROM THE WEST, WITH MORE TO COME IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STARTING ON TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS ON
THURSDAY SITS AT 75 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2) HEATRISK ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS, A
LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR (LEVEL 3) HEATRISK ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
AS WELL AS DEATH VALLEY, WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE
COOLING OR HYDRATION. KNOW WHERE TO FIND THE NEAREST COOL LOCATION
AND BRING PLENTY OF WATER IF PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WIND AND OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS IT
DRAWS CLOSER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHTER WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO REMAIN 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE UNTIL
SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FEW SHALLOW
CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 12KFT WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTH OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE AT BIH AND SITES IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. SITES IN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE THESE WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AT DAG, WINDS REMAIN MORE
WESTERLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN A SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING, CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...WOODS
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