598
FXUS65 KVEF 190526 CCA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1026 PM PDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
UPDATE
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WERE REPORTED TODAY, WITH WINDS
GENERALLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND IN
DECREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD END AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHER THAN THE WINDS, IT WAS DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST UTAH WHERE THE
TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED AND A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DID BRUSH
FAR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY BUT DID NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH RAIN OR
IMPACTS-WISE. MOST LIKELY- IT WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. A FEW HI=-RES
MODELS DO TRY TO DEVELOP VERY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS IN NYE AND
LINCOLN COUNTY AT TIMES TONIGHT, BUT THE RISK OF THIS IS VERY LOW
WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. IF THESE
SHOWERS DID DEVELOP, LITTLE TO NO RAIN WOULD REACH THE GROUND AND NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT SHOULD FEATURE CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS THINGS
REMAIN LOW IMPACT AND ON TRACK.
-NICKERSON-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
415 PM PDT SUN MAY 18 2025.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MIDDAY SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN ARC FROM TONOPAH
TO PAHRUMP TO LAKE HAVASU CITY. AREA RADARS SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN UTAH MOVING SOUTH TOWARD FAR NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY. SURFACE OBS SHOWED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 15 TO
30 MPH, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WAS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE, WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STAY GUSTY FOR ONE
MORE DAY, ALTHOUGH LESS SO THAN TODAY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. CONSIDERED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THERE, BUT IT APPEARS
THAT IF CRITERIA ARE REACHED AT ALL, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE ISOLATED
TO THE LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY/DAVIS DAM AREA AND LAST FOR A SHORT
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN FROM THE WEST, WITH MORE TO COME IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STARTING ON TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS ON
THURSDAY SITS AT 75 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2) HEATRISK ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS, A
LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR (LEVEL 3) HEATRISK ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
AS WELL AS DEATH VALLEY, WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE
COOLING OR HYDRATION. KNOW WHERE TO FIND THE NEAREST COOL LOCATION
AND BRING PLENTY OF WATER IF PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WIND AND OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS IT
DRAWS CLOSER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...NORTHWEST SHOULD ARRIVE RIGHT AROUND 06Z. GUSTS OF 15-20KT
ARE LIKELY WITH THE ONSET OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH 09Z TO 10Z WITH GUSTS ENDING AND WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO
8KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE
12Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND
INCREASE. GUSTS OF 15-20KT ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THAT TRANSITION FROM NORTHEAST
AROUND 00Z TO SOUTHWEST BY 06Z. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...A PUSH OF NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT,
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND GUSTS AS THE WINDS MOVE IN.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY MORNING WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OF 25-
30KT EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL DROP OFF AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING. AT
BIH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT 10-15KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE, GUSTS WILL RETURN WITH GUSTS OVER
20KT LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z
TOMORROW EVENING WITH GUSTS ENDING AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING
BELOW 10KT. ELSEWHERE, GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. KDAG COULD SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS AFTER 18Z MONDAY HOWEVER MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST
AND AROUND 8KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY GUSTS THAT DEVELOP ON MONDAY
WILL END AFTER SUNSET. IT WILL BE DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...MELTZER
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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