395
FXUS65 KVEF 191024
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
324 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, RESULTING
IN INCREASED WAVE ACTIVITY ON AREA LAKES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING ABOVE-AVERAGE BY TUESDAY AND
APPROACHING TRIPLE-DIGITS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WIND SPEEDS KICK
BACK UP AS A RESULT OF AN OPEN WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH GREATEST
SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY (25-35 MPH). EXPECT ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ON AREA LAKES,
PARTICULARLY LAKE MOHAVE, WHERE 1 TO 2 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.
CONSIDERED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY, BUT WINDS OF CONCERN WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED (2-3 HOURS) AND IN A CONFINED LOCATION (NEAR KATHERINE
LANDING). CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL WANE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 2-
3 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST US THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL WARM EACH DAY
IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN SLIGHTLY
ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TO ADD IN MIXING MEANS
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THE PROBABILITY
OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY HAS INCREASED TO 80
PERCENT, AND THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR DEATH VALLEY TO REACH
110 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE
(LEVEL 2) HEATRISK ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS, A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT
AFFECTS ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING OR HYDRATION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR
(LEVEL 3) HEATRISK ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AS WELL AS DEATH VALLEY,
WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR HYDRATION. KNOW
WHERE TO FIND THE NEAREST COOL LOCATION AND BRING PLENTY OF WATER IF
PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS TRY
TO RESOLVE HOW THE RIDGE BUILD BACK INTO THE RIDGE AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER MORE POTENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE.
FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WARM AS MOST MODELS SHOW SOME FLAVOR
OF A RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD ONLY COOL A FEW DEGREES, THUS SIMILAR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. AFTER THAT, THERE IS TOO
MUCH MODEL VARIANCE TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND SPECIFICS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WIND AND OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DETERMINE DETAILS GIVEN THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE RIGHT AROUND 06Z. GUSTS OF 15-20KT
ARE LIKELY WITH THE ONSET OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH 09Z TO 10Z WITH GUSTS ENDING AND WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO
8KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE
12Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH
AND INCREASE. GUSTS OF 15-20KT ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THAT TRANSITION FROM
NORTHEAST AROUND 00Z TO SOUTHWEST BY 06Z. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...A PUSH OF NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT,
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND GUSTS AS THE WINDS MOVE IN.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY MORNING WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OF 25-
30KT EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL DROP OFF AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING. AT
BIH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT 10-15KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE, GUSTS WILL RETURN WITH GUSTS OVER
20KT LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z
TOMORROW EVENING WITH GUSTS ENDING AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING
BELOW 10KT. ELSEWHERE, GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. KDAG COULD SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS AFTER 18Z MONDAY HOWEVER MORE LIKELY WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST
AND AROUND 8KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY GUSTS THAT DEVELOP ON MONDAY
WILL END AFTER SUNSET. IT WILL BE DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...SOULAT
LONG TERM...NICKERSON
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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