081
FXUS65 KVEF 191759
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1059 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, RESULTING
IN INCREASED WAVE ACTIVITY ON AREA LAKES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING ABOVE-AVERAGE BY TUESDAY AND
APPROACHING TRIPLE-DIGITS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WIND SPEEDS KICK
BACK UP AS A RESULT OF AN OPEN WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION.
UPDATE
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEEKEND
WEATHER EXITS TO THE EAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL SOMEWHAT
TEMPER WARMING TODAY, BUT DESPITE IT, A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
IS STILL UNDERWAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S
AND 80S FOR MOST, WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 90S THROUGH DEATH
VALLEY AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER, SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH NO UPDATES WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH GREATEST
SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY (25-35 MPH). EXPECT ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ON AREA LAKES,
PARTICULARLY LAKE MOHAVE, WHERE 1 TO 2 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.
CONSIDERED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY, BUT WINDS OF CONCERN WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED (2-3 HOURS) AND IN A CONFINED LOCATION (NEAR KATHERINE
LANDING). CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL WANE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 2-
3 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST US THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL WARM EACH DAY
IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN SLIGHTLY
ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TO ADD IN MIXING MEANS
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THE PROBABILITY
OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY HAS INCREASED TO 80
PERCENT, AND THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR DEATH VALLEY TO REACH
110 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE
(LEVEL 2) HEATRISK ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS, A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT
AFFECTS ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING OR HYDRATION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MAJOR
(LEVEL 3) HEATRISK ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AS WELL AS DEATH VALLEY,
WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR HYDRATION. KNOW
WHERE TO FIND THE NEAREST COOL LOCATION AND BRING PLENTY OF WATER IF
PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS TRY
TO RESOLVE HOW THE RIDGE BUILD BACK INTO THE RIDGE AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER MORE POTENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE.
FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WARM AS MOST MODELS SHOW SOME FLAVOR
OF A RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD ONLY COOL A FEW DEGREES, THUS SIMILAR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. AFTER THAT, THERE IS TOO
MUCH MODEL VARIANCE TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND SPECIFICS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WIND AND OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DETERMINE DETAILS GIVEN THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 20/00Z, WITH
SOME VARIABILITY BETWEEN 340-020. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10-12KT, GUSTS TO AROUND 18KT ARE EXPECTED, WITH
ONLY A 20% CHANCE THAT GUSTS EXCEED 20KT. WINDS WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY BETWEEN 01-03Z, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THEREAFTER
UNTIL WINDS SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. BY MID
MORNING, WINDS RETURN TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10KT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY NORTHERLY/NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KDAG THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 20-25KT ARE
EXPECTED ON AT LEAST AN INTERMITTENT BASIS, WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AREAWIDE AS SPEEDS DROP TO 6-8KT
AFTER 20/03Z. AT KDAG, WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE DURATION, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KT THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE AN UPTICK TO AROUND 12-15KT OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE OR SETTLE OUT OF TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREAWIDE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...PHILLIPSON
SHORT TERM...SOULAT
LONG TERM...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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