059
FXUS65 KVEF 200904
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
204 AM PDT TUE MAY 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE STORM TRACK DIRECTED WELL TO OUR NORTH,
BUT LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH A
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
OUR BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PACNW. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, THE
DECREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE MORE THAN OFFSET BY ENHANCED
VERTICAL MIXING VIA BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS, RESULTING IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 90S AND 100S ACROSS MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT, LEADING TO
MODERATE HEATRISK. FARTHER NORTH IN OUR SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ZONES,
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-80S TO MID-90S, RESULTING IN
MINOR HEATRISK.
ON FRIDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SAGS SOUTH, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
SLIGHT COOLING. BARRING ANY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE WINDS, STRONGEST
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN DESERTS. CHANCES OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT BARSTOW ARE AROUND 60% WHILE THE REST
OF THE AREA IS GENERALLY 30% OR LESS. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED.
WINDS WEAKEN BUT REMAIN BREEZY WHILE TEMPERATURES HOVER A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS POPS STAY BELOW
10% ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
AND DIURNAL OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. DURING THE
TRANSITION, THESE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SPEEDS REACHING 10+ KNOTS.
BETTER CHANCES (50%) OF 10+ KNOTS COME WITH THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE EARLIER THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE, THE BETTER ODDS OF SEEING 10+ KNOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT AND
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MOST SITES WILL SEE THEIR WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. BEST CHANCE
FOR 10+ KNOTS IS AT DAG (90%) WHILE SITES IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
HAVE 40-60% ODDS (MAINLY HND AND LAS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH IN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON). VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...WOODS
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