002
FXUS65 KVEF 091710
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1009 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ONLY
VERY MODEST COOLING ADVERTISED THEREAFTER. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
DRIER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF
THE WEEK.
UPDATE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY'S VALUES. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT AT
10AM THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING LAS
VEGAS, LAUGHLIN, PAHRUMP, DEATH VALLEY AND BARSTOW. THE HEAT PEAKS
TOMORROW AS SOME SUBTLE COOLING ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND FAR
NW ARIZONA THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOT WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THERE IS A
VERY WEAK LOW UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGE BUT IT'S INFLUENCE IS PRETTY
MINIMAL, HOWEVER, LINGERING ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA, AND THIS MOISTURE WILL BENEFIT
FROM THE ADDED LIFT OF THE WEAK LOW TO SPARK A FEW WEAK AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY BRIEF LIGHT RAIN ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS, WHICH WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO LINCOLN, ESMERALDA, AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
UPWARD TRAJECTORY TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MAJOR HEAT RISK
CONTINUING TO BE ADVERTISED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO AN EXTENSION INTO WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN INYO COUNTY, BUT OVERALL MAJOR HEAT RISK
COVERAGE REDUCES DRASTICALLY ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO 1-3 DEGREES OF
REGIONAL COOLING. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR BUT
FOR NOW HELD OFF ON ANY EXTENSIONS IN TIME.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WEST
COAST. MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, THOUGH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATING OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK DUE
TO DECREASED THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, IT WILL HARDLY BE
NOTICEABLE, AS TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VALLEYS REMAIN IN THE
90S AND LOWER 100S. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY
AND RETROGRADE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS, NOT ONLY LIMITING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT YIELDING
ANOTHER WARM UP AS HEIGHTS BEGIN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. IF THIS
PATTERN HOLDS, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF EXTREME HEAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BARRING
ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS THAT FOLLOW TYPICAL,
DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
(25%) CHANCE OF NORTHERLY OUTFLOW PUSHING INTO THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (AS EARLY AS 21Z AND AS LATE AS 06Z). CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND SHIFT IS LOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT THE CONVECTION ITSELF WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 12KFT.
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z, WITH A HIGH AROUND
106F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...IN AREAS THAT DO NOT
EXPERIENCE ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES TODAY, WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW
TYPICAL, DAILY PATTERNS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NW
ARIZONA TO REACH KBIH AND THE LAS VEGAS VEGAS VALLEY. TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS (IF THEY EVEN ARRIVE) IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
BUT BEST ODDS WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
WITH CLOUDS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX MON, JUN 9 TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 111(1985) 109(2022)* 109(2022)*
BISHOP 104(2013) 103(2022)* 104(2022)
NEEDLES 118(1955) 121(1910) 122(1918)
DAGGETT 110(1985) 110(1994)* 110(2022)
KINGMAN 106(1955) 109(1921) 107(1918)
DESERT ROCK 105(2013) 104(2022)* 105(2022)
DEATH VALLEY 126(2013) 125(2013) 122(2022)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN MON, JUN 9 TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 86(2016) 84(2014)* 89(2022)
BISHOP 61(2010)* 65(1985) 62(1973)
NEEDLES 87(2022) 88(1902) 90(2022)
DAGGETT 77(2014)* 77(2014)* 80(2022)*
KINGMAN 76(1978) 76(1955) 74(1921)
DESERT ROCK 86(2016) 79(2016) 83(2022)
DEATH VALLEY 96(2013) 92(2016)* 94(2022)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...WOODS
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...WOODS
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