052
FXUS65 KVEF 100234
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
734 PM PDT MON JUN 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS HEATRISK
RISES TO THE MAJOR CATEGORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. DRY, BREEZY, AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED EARLY THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED,
WITH A FEW LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL IDENTIFIABLE. NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS THE BUILDING HEAT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH
ANOTHER INCREASE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HEAT TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS FOR THE GENERAL POPULATION IN AREAS SUCH AS LAS VEGAS,
PAHRUMP, LAUGHLIN, DEATH VALLEY AND BARSTOW. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATION THROUGH 11PM TUESDAY.
THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NW ARIZONA. THESE
WILL BE DRIVEN BY RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOUNTAIN
CIRCULATIONS, THUS CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH CAN EMANATE WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE IN THE EVENINGS AS WE LOSE SURFACE
HEATING WITH THE SETTING SUN.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MID-WEEK, TROUGHING BEGINS TO ERODE AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THIS ACTS TO BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPTICK IN WINDS WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF COOLING, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP 2-5 DEGREES FROM
THEIR PEAK ON TUESDAY, BUT ENOUGH TO BRING HEATRISK BACK INTO THE
MODERATE CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL ALSO
SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE, BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN TERMS OF THE WINDS THEMSELVES, GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD DURING THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
POTENTIAL FOR WIND IMPACTS IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH BEST ODDS
(~60%) ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND 30-40% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BARRING
ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS THAT FOLLOW TYPICAL,
DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL THE VALLEY TAF
SITES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW (30%) CHANCE OF NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS PUSHING INTO THE VALLEY BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z. TIMING/MAGNITUDE
OF THE WIND SHIFT IS UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE
CONVECTION ITSELF WILL STAY OUT OF THE VALLEY AND VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 12KFT. TEMPERATURES TO
EXCEED 100F THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT, THEN WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100F AGAIN
19Z TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH
ABOUT A 30% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 20KT AFTER 20Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BEFORE ENDING
BY 04Z TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING, SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, AND CIGS BELOW 10KFT. WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY INTO NW
ARIZONA. DROPPED SUDDEN GUSTY NORTH WINDS FORM THE KBIH TAF AS THE
CHANCE FOR WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AREA
IS LOW (20% OR LESS). OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY
PATTERNS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TOMORROW, BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 15-25KT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST WITH CLOUDS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10KFT. CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN, BUT WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND LESS IMPACTFUL COMPARED TO
TODAY.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX MON, JUN 9 TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 111(1985) 109(2022)* 109(2022)*
BISHOP 104(2013) 103(2022)* 104(2022)
NEEDLES 118(1955) 121(1910) 122(1918)
DAGGETT 110(1985) 110(1994)* 110(2022)
KINGMAN 106(1955) 109(1921) 107(1918)
DESERT ROCK 105(2013) 104(2022)* 105(2022)
DEATH VALLEY 126(2013) 125(2013) 122(2022)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN MON, JUN 9 TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 86(2016) 84(2014)* 89(2022)
BISHOP 61(2010)* 65(1985) 62(1973)
NEEDLES 87(2022) 88(1902) 90(2022)
DAGGETT 77(2014)* 77(2014)* 80(2022)*
KINGMAN 76(1978) 76(1955) 74(1921)
DESERT ROCK 86(2016) 79(2016) 83(2022)
DEATH VALLEY 96(2013) 92(2016)* 94(2022)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...MORGAN
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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